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Originally Posted by Undertoad
Well, if you care to make a prediction, we can place it on the Cellar calendar and see whether it comes true. Give us a date for that downturn, it will be interesting in the future.
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Because innovation takes four to ten years to occur, and since shortage of innovation is a primary source of recessions, then four years is a minimal number for economic data to measure what was actually happening within an economy. Within four years, we should know.