Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Undertoad
No, two consecutive quarters of negative GDP are the dictionary definition of recession.
|
When that dictionary definition is met, then we were already entering recession years ago; when neo-classical economic numbers insisted the economy was booming.
We will not know if the recession is happening today (according to that definition) for many years. Years later, the GDP and unemployment numbers finally discover recession. Meanwhile, as that GDP number declares a recession, we may actually be back in a growing economy - as was the case in the early 1990s. They are lagging indicators because they measure things that occurred four and ten years previously.
Meanwhile, stock market currently says growth does not exist AND that numbers that define recession will say so years later. Common man's incoming has been falling for some years now. Using 'lagging indictors' only measure and report a recession years after the fact; years after the recession was created by a shortage of new and innovative products and created by 'money games'.