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Originally Posted by Ibram
I really say that the China/Taiwan problem is what we need to be watching out for.
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That's only one of so many potential problems. You know about Sprately Islands?
As was demonstrated by a silly spy plane incident in Spring 2001, both sides had too many extremists inciting war. China's Zemin (the outgoing president) was working hard to keep his extremists in line. His efforts were little reported in the US. Making that hard for him were Senior White House officials even calling for retaliatory action; from opposing the 2008 Olympics and trade embargos to outright military actions. Powell finally stepped up and demanded all White House people shut up. It also empowered Zemin.
These little things can easily escalate because extremist minorities on both sides see enemies everywhere. What would happen if China's new leader was a George Jr type with a pre-emption agenda? The statistical possibilities are massive.
Too many - a minority - on both sides see 'them and us'; 'black and white'. One must recognize that China also has their Joseph McCarthy types. They also have Cheney's who viewed the entire spy plane incident as aggression against the United States. Currently, the 'powers that be' in China are working for cooperation. It would explain Hu's visit without a black tie dinner and corresponding honors. The Taiwan issue is widely touted and carefully studied. Instead worry more about other minor issues, not well understood, that could make two friendly nations into enemies.
Remember that Vietnam asked to be made a protectorate of the United States. But somehow socialism was spun into communism - and we eventually ended up in a war against a nation that loved and admired the United States. How much? The Declaration of Independence for Vietnam was a duplication of America's. But some in America instead saw enemies everywhere. It can happen in any nation.