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Originally Posted by wolf
Even if airborne, there's not a really good comparison ... AIDS kills over a span of years, H5N1 over a matter of days or weeks.
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Which only changes time scales and does not change the trend. The trend - whether by airborne or by contact - whether it is a fast killer or takes years - is still an exponential curve. Not a linear curve as the naive insisted. Again, using projections that were linear, then we are all dead from AIDs. That is the problem when reporters do not approach logic with what was taught in junior high school science. That is the problem when logic sufficient for fiction novels is used to report on science and reality.
Little details that some reporters never quite understood during AIDs predictions are that disease, like most things in nature, follow exponential curves. Diseases would be exponential whether transmission is airborne or other. To deviate from those exponential trends would require other outside influences. For example, a miracle drug would sharply change that curve. But the naive, instead, jump to linear assumptions.