[Cyclefrance]

I take your point TW, but there is the question: is AIDS directly comparable to a fatal air-borne/spread virus?

True we don't have air-borne H5N1 yet, but that is the scenario that frightens most. Under those circumstances it's hard to see how the exponential curve would mirror that of AIDs both in volume and in timescale, the difference being that a disease that can be curtailed by the direct influence that the educated individual can self-impose on their hygiene and living habits is different from that where the virus will not permit itself to be discriminated against in such a way.

I can see that imposed incubation would have the ability to flatten the curve over time, but set against that is the immediate and rapid increase in damage and spread that would result from an air-borne virus. The way we live our normal lives is counter-active to containment. Humans mix too much both nationally and internationally.

The curve would certainly flatten on three counts: as a result of the number of fatalities reducing the pool of susceptible hosts, upon the introduction and dissemination of a workable vaccination, and through incubation where this was viable/possible - but all this would take time. If the virus turns into something both instantly transmittable and at the same time is extremely aggressive, it looks to me that the ride would be a very ugly one for some considerable time. But once again I admit, this is worse case scenario.

More than happy therefore to have the above interpretation and resultant concerns grounded... (maybe I shouldn't have read Stephen King's 'The Stand')