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Undertoad · 12-28-2005, 12:51 PM

I did more research into this:

- There are four M3 components and Eurodollars is the smallest of all of them;
- Most economist bloggers are unconcerned;
- Partly because the numbers are available elsewhere;
- And one of the 12 regional fed reserve banks may publish it anyway;
- And there used to be an M4 and an M5, and the Fed stopped publishing them and it didn't turn out to be a catastrophe.

So who started the idea and where did it go then?

- Most of the meat of that Kos Diary entry was almost completely taken from an August 2005 post here which seems to have been the start of the speculation.
- Googling for "Iran oil bourse" finds a ton of speculation about "petrodollar warfare", but none from serious economists, major publications (except al Jazeera, hmmm), etc.

Which to me is the killing blow. It suggests that the Kos diarist is wildly speculating, and are people who read it are glossing over the lack of serious connection between oil being traded for Euros and a massive drop in the value of the Dollar.

Because this stuff is hard to understand. But if it's the wrench in the economic engine, the untied shoelace in the US economic engine that will trip it so hard it falls on its face, shouldn't there be more serious conversation about it, from serious thinkers?

And nobody dare speak the fact that almost all economic indicators right now are like, pretty great. That's dog-bites-man news.

Which, in turn, leads me to another aspect of this. When all economic indicators are great, what economic matters will Kos diarists cover? Something like this -- sure, things seem great, but there's a secret monkey wrench that only we know about, which proves disaster is just around the corner.

In such worlds, markets that are really booming are not positive news, they are troubling "bubbles" that mght go bad at any time.

That sort of idea lives in the Kos sector, because it is widely repeated, because it tends to prove the suspicions in the school of thought.

And THAT, in turn, is why I remain a swing voter. I believe that, the further inside these schools of thought, the more error is introduced into one's understanding of the world. Similarly, if you want an example from the right, see Little Green Footballs falling away from the serious analysis he used to do, and into simple, unserious racism.

Sorry for the long post.

12-28-2005, 12:51 PM	#11
Undertoad Radical Centrist Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Cottage of Prussia Posts: 31,423	I did more research into this: - There are four M3 components and Eurodollars is the smallest of all of them; - Most economist bloggers are unconcerned; - Partly because the numbers are available elsewhere; - And one of the 12 regional fed reserve banks may publish it anyway; - And there used to be an M4 and an M5, and the Fed stopped publishing them and it didn't turn out to be a catastrophe. So who started the idea and where did it go then? - Most of the meat of that Kos Diary entry was almost completely taken from an August 2005 post here which seems to have been the start of the speculation. - Googling for "Iran oil bourse" finds a ton of speculation about "petrodollar warfare", but none from serious economists, major publications (except al Jazeera, hmmm), etc. Which to me is the killing blow. It suggests that the Kos diarist is wildly speculating, and are people who read it are glossing over the lack of serious connection between oil being traded for Euros and a massive drop in the value of the Dollar. Because this stuff is hard to understand. But if it's the wrench in the economic engine, the untied shoelace in the US economic engine that will trip it so hard it falls on its face, shouldn't there be more serious conversation about it, from serious thinkers? And nobody dare speak the fact that almost all economic indicators right now are like, pretty great. That's dog-bites-man news. Which, in turn, leads me to another aspect of this. When all economic indicators are great, what economic matters will Kos diarists cover? Something like this -- sure, things seem great, but there's a secret monkey wrench that only we know about, which proves disaster is just around the corner. In such worlds, markets that are really booming are not positive news, they are troubling "bubbles" that mght go bad at any time. That sort of idea lives in the Kos sector, because it is widely repeated, because it tends to prove the suspicions in the school of thought. And THAT, in turn, is why I remain a swing voter. I believe that, the further inside these schools of thought, the more error is introduced into one's understanding of the world. Similarly, if you want an example from the right, see Little Green Footballs falling away from the serious analysis he used to do, and into simple, unserious racism. Sorry for the long post.