[Undertoad]

Originally Posted by Undertoad

Yabbut at least one of the polls (Survey USA?) is completely phone-automated - as in, press 1 for Bush, 2 for Kerry, 3 for Nader, 4 for Undecided.

Which is also going to lead to some bias that they think they can factor out.

Mickey Kaus wonders whether voters would be embarrassed to admit to a Kerry vote to a live pollster. Mystery Pollster says

I think Kaus is on to something when he wonders about an "embarrassment" factor that might limit Kerry more on telephone surveys but not on automated, recorded interviews like those done by SurveyUSA and Rasmussen. I think I see evidence of this in the polls by SurveyUSA in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan. In each of those states, SUSA has Bush matching the RealClearPolitics average but has Kerry running a few points higher. Their surveys always show a higher undecided than most other surveys, and Jay Leve, SurveyUSA's director has always speculated it is because their recorded interview better simulates the solitary experience the voting booth. At the same time, I see an opposite pattern in Iowa, Missouri and Colorado - so perhaps I'm just data mining. I want to watch this closely over the weekend.