Unless Iraq suddenly becomes ok, and there is actually a plan implemented to deal with leaking jobs and the deficeit, I don't forsee the Republican party making it out of the next 4 years.
Curious -- why do you think this? Lets say Bush wins and continues on serving as president. While the man is currently hated by a large percentage of the country, he is also loved by another group numbering almost the same. Iraq is already a mess, so do you think more of the same will doom the party or do you foresee a change or event that will do it?
On your topic of a new party emerging, I actually would love to see that happen. Maybe Republicans who actually do stand for smaller government, states' rights, etc? That'd change my vote!
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