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Originally Posted by xoxoxoBruce
The trouble with most of these numbers is they're based on Unemployment Insurance. When your benefits run out, or take another job at 1/3 your former pay, you drop off the screen.  |
I checked and actually the figures are based on surveys of company payrolls, NOT the people who file for unemployment. I found it interesting to note how the real wage of the average American has steadily declined over at least the past 10 years (didn't look at figures before '92) and that's even if you stay with your same job, never mind having to take a lower paying one.
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Originally Posted by Lookout 123
i have absolutely no interest in being an economist so i won't go do all the research on my own. but i think it is important to realize that individuals like Ezrati have no reason to twist numbers for political purposes. it is absolutely crucial that his information be correct. they are running $84B machine based in large part on this individual (and others) see as the direction of the economy. i would trust this type of source to a far greater degree than any government source.
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Just curious. Aren't people more likely to make investments when they feel comfortable about the direction of the economy, rather than when they don't? I'm not trying to imply that you, personally, Lookout, would deliberately mislead clients, but might not some higher up see it as in the financial industry's best interest to paint an over-all rosey picture? When it comes to indivdual stocks, sure, its important to be as accurate as possible, but the individual you quoted seemed to be writng in a general sort of way. Without giving away valuable secrets, how would you advise your clients differently in a "the economy is going to hell" versus "everything is only going to climb to the skies" scenario? Based on the article you gave us, would you advise clients to buy stocks in any US textile company that by some miracle still does its manufacturing in this country? So if the financial community doesn't trust government sources, how does it get its data to make predictions? Isn't that frightfully expensive to use private research groups? These are all honest questions, not attempted jibes. I'm really puzzled as to how the whole thing works.
