Zeyad's current entry suggests what's happening. Writing from inside the country and inside the culture:
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I have to shed light on something that has been bothering me for quite some time. Events over the last six months or so seem to indicate a developing pattern of the violence in Iraq. Simply put, when there is a surge of violence in the south, it completely ceases in other areas of Iraq, and vice versa. In other words, whenever Sadr takes a rest, Zarqawi comes into action again.
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His theory is that the pattern suggests something important:
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With this bleak scenario in mind, one can easily interpret the current pattern of violence... Each group wants to survive the occupation to fight for power in the future.
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Powers that be in Iraq are
counting on the US's lack of resolve to continue to nation-build. So is the Kerry campaign with their plan is to be out in four years. So HP is right, you either cut off your arm (Kerry) or sit there in pain dying slowly (Bush).