[glatt]

It would have been nice if Bush actually mentioned this stuff when pushing for war instead of saying it was all about an imminent threat to the USA.

Originally Posted by Undertoad

http://denbeste.nu/essays/strategic_overview.shtml

1. To directly reduce support for terrorist groups by eliminating one government which had been providing such support.

I've heard the allegation that Iraq paid widows of suicide bombers in Israel. That's the only evidence I've heard of such terrorist support. I've read and seen much more to point out that Saddam would have nothing to do with people like OBL because they were religious and opposed Saddam. I'm very doubtful that Iraq was much of a factor in terrorism.

Originally Posted by Undertoad

2. To place us in a physical and logistical position to be able to apply substantial pressure on the rest of the major governments of the region.

So far, it's not working out that way. We kind of have our hands full in Iraq. In fairness, I understand events don't always work out the way you plan.

Originally Posted by Undertoad

3. To convince the governments and other leaders of the region that it was no longer fashionable to blame us for their failure, so that they would stop using us as scapegoats.

This seems to have backfired. Maybe the news is only showing the negative stuff, but I hear condemnations of the US on a regular basis.

Originally Posted by Undertoad

4. To make clear to everyone in the world that reform is coming, whether they like it or not, and that the old policy of stability-for-the-sake-of-stability is dead. To make clear to local leaders that they may only choose between reforming voluntarily or having reform forced on them.

Well, the message has been sent. I think everyone got it loud and clear. It's possible that Libya fell into line as a result of Iraq. Or maybe it's more like Reagan taking credit for all the work Gorby did to tear down the wall. Either way, Libya is shaping up. That's a good thing, regardless of where the credit belongs.

Originally Posted by Undertoad

5. To make a significant long term change in the psychology of the "Arab Street"

Too soon to make a call on long term changes. Short term changes don't look so good.

Originally Posted by Undertoad

6. To "nation build". After making the "Arab Street" truly face its own failure, to show the "Arab Street" a better way by creating a secularized, liberated, cosmopolitan society in a core Arab nation. To create a place where Arabs were free, safe, unafraid, happy and successful. To show that this could be done without dictators or monarchs. (I've been referring to this as being the pilot project for "Arab Civilization 2.0".)

I pray this works. It looks like the only way we can solve the situation in Iraq now. It's not looking so good though. Aid workers are talking seriously about pulling out entirely.

Originally Posted by Undertoad

7. Not confirmed: It may have been hoped that the conquered nation would serve as a honey-pot to attract militants from the region, causing them to fight against our troops instead of planning attacks against civilians. (This was described by David Warren as the flypaper strategy.) It seems to have worked out that way, but it's not known if this was a deliberate part of the plan. Many of the defenders who died in the war were not actually Iraqis.

That would be awesome if it worked out that way.

These are all interesting reasons for the war. Hindsight is 20/20 of course, but it seems to be failing on most counts so far. We have a long road in front of us, and maybe things will improve.

I wonder if Bush and Co. ever admit to themselves as they lie awake in bed at night that it was an amazingly stupid idea and they wish they could turn back the clock?