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I have to disagree somewhat. Just because events did happen, it does not follow that they had to happen. I could say that a general Mid-East war is predestined, if enough people bought into that idea, we would have our war since none would bother to work against that outcome. Like the pre-WWII time frame there are many social and political reasons why such a general conflict is likely, however, the fatalistic vision that these factors can't be mitigated by individuals, is counter-productive. That Boeing (aircraft?) and the Kennedys both had a profit interest in war and the increase in government power which flows from it shows that they wanted war, not that it was inevitable that America participate. FDR wanted to bring the US into the conflict and affected the changes he could, to support that outcome.
You are right about the Iran situation outside of your dog/tail analogy. Progress in our relationship with Iran seemed inevitable, until one dog wagged his tail.
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