Quote:
Originally Posted by Undertoad
Why don't the market traders just follow the currency traders?
|
Never confuse what happens in an economy with what traders do. single transaction prices change daily or weekly. Economy changes take years.
Currency traders demonstrate a belief that the UK economy, many years from now, will be harmed that much. That is their immediate feelings / speculation. Many years later, we will see what happens.
Returning to the point. Did not realize currency traders believe Brexit will be that much worse. In the past three years with Brexit nonsense, the pound has taken a massive reduction in currency markets. As usual, economic conditions being predicted (speculated) today will occur many years from now.
Damage that Brexit will create has hardly begun. Nothing has yet changed in the economy. And will not until after October. Or earlier if companies (ie Toyota) pull out faster.
So how bad will that damage be? Currency traders are speculating today that damage many years from now will be that bad.
What other market traders are we talking about? Big companies are simply moving operations to other nations. As Toyota will do. As all major banks now have plans to do. To move to Ireland, Belgium, Paris, and Frankfort - to nations that want productive businesses. They will remain profitable.
In four years, effects should be obvious in the market for jobs. That market has always been a lagging indicator.
One market that may report economic damage sooner is London real estate. How quick? Many such contracts remain in force for many years. The resulting downturn would be apparent when those leases expire.
Will car insurance increase? Can't say. Yes because parts will have tariffs attached. No because labor remains local with more unemployed workers. Different markets will respond differently.