Stock Investment - Part II
[continued from the previous post]
Take the computer industry as an example. Clearly Microsoft and Intel - great companies - are not positioned for any major market breakthroughs. Both are good stable investments if you are 60 or 70 years old. But at 35, your investments must be growth. That means moderate risk with growth potential. Maybe a revival of the semiconductor industry would mean Applied Materials or Novellus - both have been dogs for a while. But first see some reason why the semiconductor industry is poised for a serious upswing. Again, good investments worthy of watching. But maybe not currently good.
What about Nokia? The cell phone maker (which is another branch of the computer industry). Maybe except that phones are now becoming commodities. Too much of the advanced technical work so successfully achieved by both Nokia and Erricson is now performed by new, upstart (even Chinese) companies. Amazon is worthy of watching. Profits are not yet there but the product line is quite good and innovative. Adobe still has a good market without any serious potential competition and with still many new future advances for their product lines. Qualcomm is in the driver seat for cell phone technology. Therein lies a few stocks to keep watching if you understand the computer business. Will the networking business finally create enough demand (will the last mile companies finally stop impeding the growth of broadband)? Questions answered by watching every article about Cisco and Juniper Networks. Questions answered by watching how the cable companies and baby bells either stifle or promote internet growth.
See how it goes? There is nothing fancy about stock investment except by understanding the only reason for growth - the product and its markets. Don't let the market liars have you think that investment is only for professionals. Again, the market experts average underperform the markets. Product is why Peter Lynch and Warren Buffet were such good investors. Warren Buffet says he only invests in what he understands. Bill Gates is one of his closest friends. But Buffet still will not invest in computers. He does not understand the product or its market.
That is what you must do. First put most money in index mutual funds that have the smallest annual fees (penalty costs). Invest in a few hundred shares of one stock. Always buy stocks in groups of one hundred shares. Within a year or two, then you will be ready to move from index funds to a basket of five stock. And yes, that means reading about and learning the products. Don't waste time on useless publications such as the Daily News, Action News, or the local gossip newspaper. You must read real news. That means serious sources from time to time such as Barrons, NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, Philadelphia Inquirerer, or LA Times.
I cannot say enough about PBS's Nightly Business Report. Friday is an especially important day. A visiting market expert on for a quick 5 minute presentation. Listen to what he/she says. If he taulks like an economist or accountant, then ignore him completely. He is a classic stock broker plying lies to get other person's money. But if the presentation discusses stocks in terms of why they have a good product or market, then add that stock to your basket of 'stocks to watch'. From that 20+ basket, you will eventually select 5.
Do not invest in futures. Do not sell short. Do not buy stock options. All that is complex and dangerous. Just buy five good common stocks knowing that no matter what happens, you must still own those stocks five years later. That is how the smart investors make big bucks. No churning (buying and selling every year). No reinvestning the few dollars of dividend into shares every three month. Just a straight forward investment in common stock by (and only use) a discount broker.
You don't need a full service broker. Their advise, based upon historical averages, is inferior to the average investor. In reality, the full service broker is a fancy, shined-up salesman whose job is to get you to do what is in his best interest. He is the poor student in school whose only objective in life was the $150,000+ per year salary. Yes, whores make that much. Uses a Discount broker. One common stock sometime in the next three months is where you begin.
For those others - your first stock investment should have been by the time your were 25. That way, when you were thrity, then you have enough feel for the market to be earning good money in your 30s. Oynxcougar is an example of an investor who has started too late; who must now play catchup. And of course, those who invest in mutual funds only make the stock brokers richer at their own personal expense. Mutual funds routinely underachieve.
Last edited by tw; 05-28-2004 at 04:16 PM.
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