[Flint]

Originally Posted by Flint

I've always encouraged everyone to ignore news articles about Trump's approval rating. Instead, consult a reliable polling aggregate like 538, and observe that no matter what happens, it always averages out to a straight line over any reasonable length of time (that is to say-- you either love him or you hate him).

I still believe this, but I was curious about whether enough time has passed since the government shutdown for the polling averages to catch up, and show what people think (in the short term) in regards to Trump "owning" the shutdown.

What I see here is an extended, starkly directional line, like rarely has happened (not since right after he was elected, and then, arguably, in December 2017). Does it mean anything? Who knows? Here's the visual:

*and over the entire tenure, yes it's still just a straight line

Any change since the shutdown ended on Friday? Too soon for the polls to reflect this, but no break in the trend. Trump was riding a smooth straight line since May 2018, then the shutdown began and the effect was immediate-- rocketing him to within 1.5 points of the worst he's ever done (August and December of 2017).