Turn over of Iraq
 

Ok, so power was officially turned over 2 days ahead of time. Bremer is out of the country.
how long do you think it will be before they have to scrape the PM's remains off the floor and find themselves another one?

I think he'll be able to dodge the bullet/bomb for about two weeks.

Oh, and they'll be scraping him off the ceiling and walls, not the floor. There will be a large hole that was once floor ...

Honestly, I'm sincerely hoping that it "all works out" and that self-governance brings about some significant changes in what's going on in Iraq.

However, I am also sufficiently realistic to guess that there will be several governments in the year or two to come before they get this all figured out.

the iraqi gov't has the ability to do what the american gov't can't. go out and absolutely crush the terrorists who oppose them.
when the americans hunt down and kill an iraqi, bad guy that he may be, it is easy for the terrorists to rally people by putting a US vs. Iraqi people slant on the event. when it is the iraqi gov't who takes out a terrorist (or even uses extreme means to gain info) it will be harder to rally fence-sitters on the side of terror. it is easy to unite fence-sitters against an outsider, more difficult if the terrorists are oposing someone from within.

the new gov't needs to be swift, severe, and consistant with strikes against the opposition. they need to earn the people's trust by proving that they are not just a new face on an old system.

the formula for success is very simple, let's just see if they can pull it off.

If they get it figured out before the gov't uses the turncoat police as an excuse to go back in.

Dear God, I hope this works. I think we have created a moral obligation to provide security and infrastructure for the Iraqi people, but the sooner the public face of that security stops being American, the better.

A stable and secular democracy. A safe return for our troops. A future ally in a turbulent region.

I don’t know that these things will have been worth the cost of the war, but they are, I think, the best hope and prayer that we can have at this point.

-sm

I will declare this turn-over complete when US forces are removed from the area, so I think I might have a chance at declaring it complete in, oh, say about five years from now? Maybe?

I hope.

But I agree with Wolf: two weeks and the new PM will be gone through means of bullet, bomb, or RPG.

Troops have never left Germany and similarly I hope that US forces are in Iraq in 20 years. It'll mean things went right.

Maybe a good metric would be when we are no longer taking military action.


Anyway, here's a Germany timeline for comparison purposes:

May 8, 1945 - Unconditional surrender.

Allies (US, UK, USSR, France) occupy and administer country.

September 21, 1949 - Self government with exceptions.

May 1955 - Full Sovereignty with exceptions (oxymoron?)

December 2, 1990 - First all-German elections, as part of unification.

Maybe a good metric would be when we are no longer taking military action.

Sorry -- that is what I was trying to get at. UT is correct in that, for it to be done right, we'll need to have troops there indefinately.

Anyone have any information on what the proposed timeline for Iraq is? I think I heard that elections would happen in one year or more after a constitution was drawn up and implemented?

January for elections.;)