Pakistani militants attack key NATO supply line
 

http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/1208/p01s01-wosc.html


This attack seems to come at an interesting time and I wouldn't be surprised to see more attacks on NATO supply lines in the future. For one, the Taliban is gaining massive ground in Afghanistan, they have increased their permanent presence from 54% to 72% in a years time* and they seem to be closing in on Kabul and the Northern Alliance. They will not defeat NATO in Kabul though as long as fresh supplies keep reaching NATO forces and especially not after Obama becomes president and reinforces the area.

So, many anti-NATO forces are in play here, mainly in Afghanistan and Pakistan. These could be related or not, probably both depending on scenario. In the meantime, stopping the NATO supply line in Pakistan gives advantages to many people. It will help the Taliban put pressure on the remaining NATO forces, it will help Pakistanis get rid of Western influence in the area, and it will force NATO to use other supply routes.

http://cyberschoolbus.un.org/infonat...fghanistan.gif

As seen, Afghanistan is a landlocked country surrounded by nations that are not necessarily friendly to the US or NATO. Iran, China, and Russia (north of all the Central Asian countries) will all be reluctant to allow NATO supplies through and the other options are very expensive.

http://vlib.iue.it/carrie/texts/carr...ntral_asia.gif

One of those options is to go through the Caspian Sea. It would involve starting in Turkey, moving into Azerbaijan, crossing the Caspian Sea, into Turkmenistan, and finally into Afghanistan. I'm not sure about Turkmenistan but I know Azerbaijan does not want to be involved or wants the attention so a supply line there will be tough.


If the Taliban does succeed (or has it given to them by other forces) in really cutting off NATO forces in the next few months, Afghanistan will be a very tough job for Obama and the new administration. This area will also be interesting to watch in the near future.


*http://www.icosgroup.net/modules/rep.../press_release

Do you think this might be where Obama gets "tested"? Obvious place for it I guess.

I'm not convinced Pakistan wants NATO out of Afghanistan. A militant Islamic Afghanistan is much more of a threat than a corrupt secular or moderate one. Or even, inshallah, a free stable democratic one.

I don't know if I would consider it a test. We are still under the Bush administration and it seems that the Taliban is trying to gain as much ground as possible before Obama gets into office and make his goal of securing Afghanistan very difficult if not impossible. If there was a test I would expect it more from Russia or China. Although, those two countries could have great influence over the actions of militants in the Pakistan region so you can never rule anything out.

Threat to who? I'm assuming Pakistan's views are very split. Some want Western presence, some want an Islamic Pakistan state, some want to split up the country. Besides the first answer, I don't see how a militant Afghan state would be a threat to Pakistan.

Don't limit your observations to that and a large number of previous attacks on American convoys in Pakistan enroute to Afghanistan. 70% of US supplies are overland through Pakistan.

American made things even worse by subverting the nuclear non-proliferation treaty unilaterally. Now India can divert nuclear material once reserved for nuclear power stations into making more bombs. This because the US will replace that missing nuclear material with American processed and sold uranium - violating the letter and purpose of the Nuclear non-proliferation Treaty.

What we do know. Even a spectacular military victory is completely subverted if no phase four planning exists. No phase four planning was implemented in Afghanistan. Therefore the road from Kabul to Kandahar has been owned by the Taliban for at least four years now. So what did we do? We reelected George Jr. and we invented a mythical worldwide enemy called Al Qaeda. If we defeated our 'Moriarity' in Iraq, then Afghanistan would be free. Afghanistan proves it.

That one attack is simply a well reported one from over a week ago. Even Pakistani militants are rumored to be joining what is now becoming routine attacks on American convoys in Pakistan. It will only get worse.

....before it gets better.

At least thats what Obama said

I was thinking of the current moderate, pro-western govt, which is presently in power in Pakistan, and who I presume fear a militant Islamic Afghanistan.

Don't forget, also, that winter in Afghanistan is terrible and these people are grabbing territory now so they can hunker down during the snow. So on second thoughts BHO will probably not be "tested" in Afghanistan in late January, on account of the place being ice-bound.

US plans Central Asian Supply Route

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/31/wo...nted=1&_r=1&hp
This will be interesting to watch how both Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Central Asia reacts. The United States obviously doesn't feel Pakistan has the man-power to safely protect US supplies and their recent scuffle with India doesn't help. Central Asia may be a hot spot in the near future due to its gas reserves and Russia's and China's want to exploit that so a intensifying of United States influence and maybe even militant Islamic to counter the supply lines will throw more fuel into the fire.

Because Afghanistan poppys supply the Pakistan militant Islamics with a large part of their funding. They know that a NATO controlled Afghanistan would dry up that funding.