Are political polls ever right?
 

A little 15-minute study of whether polls have any connection to reality.

I took this page which lists the "last-minute" polls taken just before election day. I decided to limit it to the senate races.

The polls were exactly right 3 times, within their published margin of error 7 times, and "wrong" - outside their margin of error - 10 times.

No wonder the elections were such a surprise.

The biggest offender was Zogby, which got it wrong 7 out of 9 times.

South Dakota
Zogby GOP 5%
USA/CNN/Gallup GOP 3%
Actual DEM 1%
Zogby wrong, U/C/G at outskirts of margin of error

Minnesota
Zogby DEM 6%
Actual GOP 3%
Zogby wrong

Missouri
Zogby GOP 8%
U/C/G GOP 4%
Actual GOP 1%
Zogby wrong, U/C/G within margin of error

Colorado
Zogby DEM 5%
U/C/G GOP 2%
Actual GOP 5%
Zogby wrong, U/C/G within margin of error

New Hampshire
American Research Grp GOP 4%
Univ of NH GOP 1%
Actual GOP 4%
ARG exactly right, UoNH within margin of error

Arkansas
Zogby DEM 13%
USA Today/Gallup DEM 8%
Actual DEM 8%
Zogby wrong, U/G exactly right

New Jersey
Zogby DEM 13%
Quinnipiac DEM 11%
Actual DEM 10%
Zogby and Quinnipac within margin of error

Texas
Zogby GOP 4%
Actual GOP 12%
Zogby wrong

Georgia
Zogby DEM 2%
Actual GOP 7%
Zogby wrong

N Carolina
Zogby GOP 10%
Actual GOP 9%
Zogby right

Iowa
Survey USA DEM 22%
Des Moines Register DEM 9%
Actual DEM 10%
Survey USA wrong, Des Moines Register within marg of error

South Carolina
Mason Dixon GOP 17%
Survey USA GOP 1%
Actual GOP 10%
Both Mason Dixon and Survey USA wrong... in different directions.

Tennessee
Survey USA GOP 11%
Mason Dixon GOP 10%
Actual GOP 10%
Mason Dixon exactly right, Survey USA within marg of err

The statistics themselves arent wrong, its probably the way they drew their sample from the population. Given that it's a last minute poll, they probably sampled 100 or 200 people (a very small sample compared to the population) very sloppily. Maybe some "random" phone calls, someone asking questions outside a mall, etc....

So for the group that they polled, yes, those statistics are correct. But compared to the population, thats when you begin to see changes.

If you take the math that you see on tv seriously, you're crazy.

Zogby...I have no idea how they screwed up that bad.

They're not correct if the people being polled lied to the pollsters.

which *everybody* does. :)
~james

...because lets face it, its good clean fun. :)

"No wonder the elections were such a surprise."

What? Who was surprised?...Did you have a poll or something? Hehehe....