God Spare New Orleans
 

902 mb. 175mph sustained winds with higher gusts. I cannot even fathom what is going to happen if Katrina holds. The city of New Orleans will not exist as any of us know it now come Tuesday morning.

<a href="http://weather.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/iwszone?Sites=:laz062">Holy shit</a>.

We're about to witness one of the worst natural disasters to befall the United States.

I'm feelin' ya. I know it. I am pretty upset because NO is the coolest place on the planet and has the nicest damn people. I. Am. Bummin'.

Plus, all those barely-at-rest 'Nawlins ghosts are going to be re-animated.
Whole thing is a spooky bummer.

I love New Orleans. I've only been there once, but the historic parts of the town were amazing. I'm so depressed that we're going to lose so much.

My friends that live out there got out this morning. They had enough time to pack up most of the important stuff and left town. I was really saddened to hear that they recently moved to a first story apartment in the historic district, but at this point I don't think any structure is going to do so well.

I think it is time for a drink.

From the National Weather Service Bulletin:

DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED

HURRICANE KATRINA
A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE KILLED.

Flying household appliances? Incredible human suffering? My God, I really hope this forecast is wrong! If there is anybody who lives in that area and doesn't have friends or family in a safe zone, you're welcome to head up north to Colorado. I've got a spare bedroom. Seriously. PM me. If you have nowhere to go that's safe. :mg:

Fathom is an awfully appropriate term. 20' to 30' storm surge, and New Orleans is 30' below sea level on a dry day. This surge looks like it's heading straight for the sea mouth to Lake Ponchatrain.

I heard but cannot find the descriptions* of the damage of a storm of this magnitude. I remember phrases like 50% of all wooden structures will be destroyed. All windows will be broken out. Flying debris including household appliances and light vehicles. Tall buildings will sway dangersously.

This is going to make the loss of life and property of the events of September 11, 2001 seem like a fart in church. 4.5 million people live in New Orleans. The diameter of the hurricane force winds is over 200 miles. A swath of destruction hundreds of miles wide.

Goodbye, New Orleans.



edit: * this is the description that terrified me. thanks for finding it Mari. I don't remember seeing your adjancent post when I made my remarks. I wasn't really at my best though.

Google 'Hurricane Camille' and you can see some awesome pics of what that one did. Unreal.

I fear we are about to witness the most devastating destructive event in the modern history of the USA.

Get out your checkbooks, folks. There is going to be a need for a lot of charity. Furthermore, I believe this event will certainly push the price of gasoline above $3.00 per gallon, and maybe above $5.00.

I don't think we can even imagine how bad this is going to be if it bullseyes Ponchartrain. Absolute worst case scenario.

Well my ass ain't on the line like the folks in SO. La. I lived So. of NO before Betsy and lost all but my car. Anyway I live a little S.E. of the MS on this map, so I guess my new roof will get a test. Took a ride to store while ago, no "D" batteries in town and by tomorrow will be no gas.

National Geographics did an article on New Orleans water/hurricane problem a while ago. I made a mental note that we should get down there before the inevitable... This is going to be awful. Our prayers are with you folks, please don't stay.

Seems like she took a more easterly approach than they were expecting -- this seems like good news. NO will get the west side of the storm, with less severe winds. The pic is from the APotD.

I have a friend in the Florida Panhandle. She has a lot of friends in New Orleans, who had already gotten out before the mandatory evacuation was announced. She has had to ride out several of the storms that hit the panhandle because she's a cop and has to go into work rather than flee.

Times like this I really like Pennsylvania.

That is good news. Unfortunately, that means there'll be southerly winds blowing across Lake Ponchatrain, north of and towards New Orleans. 100+ mph winds. A lot of lake is going to wind up in the French Quarter...

And it looks like a Cat3 instead of a Cat5, also good.

What were they thinking putting folks in the Superdome?

Except that it won't be able to do 100 megabit ethernet, only 10.

Lots of extra concession sales? Impromptu pickup football games? Bored refugees might be willing to spruce things up a bit?

The possibilities are endless, really.

Nerd :biggrin:

:lol2:

Apparently it's the only building in town that was designed to resist hurricane force winds and rains.

Of course, said design was done by the lowest bidder.

A couple of pics...

http://i.a.cnn.net/cnn/interactive/w...m/02.04.ap.jpg

http://i.a.cnn.net/cnn/interactive/w...m/02.03.ap.jpg

I fully expect financial and material support from the international community. Perhaps U2 will perform.

France is sending 50 truffle-sniffing pigs, Great Britian has 100,000 MRE's containing jellied eels and cold potatoes ready to go, Banglasdesh is sending their most experienced swimming instructors, and Thailand will be contributing hints on how to survive intensely bad smells for an extended period of time.

The Superdome roof is a PVC heat-welded membrane, probably secured by a combination of adhesive and mechanical terminations. It is essentially a giant PVC tarp, and it is likely that the material to which that tarp was fastened is what failed, ripped up by the rather elastic and airtight material which was attached to the substrates. Low bidder's got nothing to do with it. *Any* roof will fail in these extreme conditions, no matter how well designed and applied. Even roofs which are designed to withstand hurricanes do not retain their waterproofing characteristics...they just don't rip the entire support structure out when they fail.

Let's all hope busterb's reading this thread from somewhere OUTSIDE the white area. Looks like his house will get a close up view of the eye wall of the hurricane.

Didn't he say his house was to the SE of the MS on the map? Yikes!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphi...152544W_sm.gif

Hope there was nobody in this pickup truck with its headlights on. Maybe the lights came on from the impact. I hope...

How el ;) se would they hold it up?

He told me last night his new roof was going to be tested and his garden blown away. :(

Well, it looks like a near hit on New Orleans from a category 3 instead of direct hit by a category 5. The question now is who takes the credit for their last minute reprieve, the Christians or the Voodoo priestesses?

Both, of course.

Totally the voodoo!

I had the same thought. It's bad enough to see the cars, but the cars with the possibility of occupancy is a shame. At least it wasn't a ragtop.

It was the Vodou. They had a chat with Katrina.

Well, it looks like a near hit on New Orleans from a category 3 instead of direct hit by a category 5. The question now is who takes the credit for their last minute reprieve, the Christians or the Voodoo priestesses?

I think that by the end of this week we'll find that the difference between Katrina being a catagory three and a catagory five is more going to matter to the people who had to deal with it inland.

For New Orleans, I suspect, it didn't matter much. The flooding they're seeing this morning is horrific.

I've never been through anything like this, before. I've never lost everything I had, never had to deal with an insurance company in the face of disaster. I know a couple who were due to be married in December and live(d) on a first floor apartment in one of the historic areas of New Orleans. They managed to evacuate, but I've not heard from them since and I'm sure they don't know what has happened to their apartment, yet, anyways.

Outside of offering a place to stay until they are able to get back on their feet, again, is there anything that anyone can think of that would be a good thing to do for them? If you were displaced and didn't know when you'd be home, what would make your time away easier?

...and in the unfortunate event that everything is lost (which seems highly likely at this point), what could I do to help them out? I know they had insurance and all, but I'm curious as to what they might expect and what I could do to assist them.

The hard part at this point is going to be finding them.

Hopefully they did have insurance, especially insurance that covers major acts of God, like a hurricane. Some standard policies in hurricane areas do not, but I'm assuming you know that already.

Despite being an expert in Disaster Mental Health (which involves being there, listening, and handing out water and socks at times), I don't actually know the answer to your question.

Send them a small teddy bear (or something that would be in character for you, perhaps a fox), and a "What can I do to help?" note. And maybe a case of MREs and bottled water ... that's likely what they need right now.

When a coworker's apartment building burned down and he lost absolutely everything, the things he appreciated most in the following days were basic necessities--clothes, pillows, and toiletries, stuff like that. You can eat out for awhile until you get new pots and pans, but if you don't have a shower curtain things are really going to suck.

No, God.

/less filling!
//tastes great!
///reading too much fark

When shit like this befalls us, it doesn't matter what name we tack onto it...we're all talkin' to the same thing.

Kit, if you can contact them, just tell them to ask for whatever they need, and if you can get it/do it, you will.

Let us know if they need some sponsorship. I'd be happy to kick in a few bucks to some personal assistance effort.

This picture just hints at the flooding going on. These are houses.

They said yesterday evening that the worst case scenario did not occur. I have since heard that opinion recanted. This may not be the *absolute* worst case, but it is very, very close.

I'm currently at my parents house in Southwest Indiana, Evansville to be precise, and we had Katrina effects today - lots of wind and rain. Lots of flooding around here, but it's really nothing compared to what happened down south.

I hope that all is well with Cellarites down in those areas affected... please check in soon.

The vodoun believe in God also.

He just gets different kinds of helpers.

I spent some of the early part of tonight looking through some news sites checking out pictures and videos.

Some of the most incredible were of houses, businesses, and the yacht club on fire. Fire apparatus can't get to any of these places with the flooding, so they are just left to burn.

I can't find the picture anymore, because I guess the TV station redid their slide shows, but I saw one that was particularly interesting ... a pawn shop that was apparently on high ground that missed getting flooded was on fire. I found myself wondering if the owner had been counting on the floods to take care of some of his financial problems and when he remained dry, arranged for a little accident.

Anybody hear from Buster B yet?

Gulf Coasters aren't the only ones getting beaten up. <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/asiapcf/08/31/taiwan.typhoon.reut/index.html">Taipei is getting their third typhoon this year</a>, also a strong catagory four.

One quote from a Taiwainese fisherman is a little amusing.

This guy doesn't seem to get the big picture.

You don't know his boss...

:vader1:

[B]PICTURES[/B]
 

Here are some aerial shots of the flood damage.

Slide two is an amazing shot.

Well, with the failure of the Ponchatrain canal levees, the worst case scenario has come to be. I heard this morning that they fully expect the flooding of the New Orleands basin to cease only when the water level reaches equilibrium with the level of the lake.

Even in the aerial shots I saw last night, slicks of gasoline, oil and chemicals are evident in almost every view as submerged gas tanks and vehicles lose their contents. As the water rises higher, more and more petroleum-based and other industrial contaminants will enter the festering mix, joining rotting bodies, animal carcasses and vegetable matter.

New Orleans may be a dead loss. As it is, the number of businesses unable to function and the number of people who have lost everything, jobs included, will be unprecedented in our history. Who is going to house and care for these people? Who will pay their outstanding credit card debt (now that they can't file bankruptcy to clear those accounts)?

You know the one thing I didn't see in all of the approximately 30 solid minutes of different videos and stills I looked at last night? A military presence that was more than the merest token.

Where's our military in all of this? Surely, this disaster calls for a strong military response, with all of their hardware, expertise and organization.

hey lj, check out slide #29.

and #25

Els:

4 navy amphibious ships are en route from Norfolk now. I agree with your point. Also, hasn't this historically been a job where the National Guard steps in first? Same problem, different symptom.

It is about time. It is going to take a lot of serious effort to clear out the rest of New Orleans.

If ever there was a good reason for a Federal Government, this is it.

The flood shots bigw00dy posted are awesome in the old sense of the word. And while I feel really badly for the NO residents, I couldn't help thinking with every slide, "It's gonna cost a fortune to repair this".

It wouldn't surprise me if one or more insurance company goes out of business over this. And with the current economy already limping and bleeding, I think that Katrina is going to cause a serious nosedive in our recovery.

Has anyone heard about the countries that are offering their assitance?

I don't think real insurance companies do much flood insurance, do they? Uncle Sam is gonna be on the hook for this one...

You misspelled 'taxpayers'. :(

I haven't heard anything this time around, but it is pointless for them to do so, anyways. Each time a country offers assistance to the US, it is turned away unless it is a very specialized team of people that perform a needed, critical function (collapsed building techs from Canada, etc) or specialized equipment the US does not have (remote controlled, people-seeking robots for finding people in rubble, etc).

And while it would be a nice gesture, offering financial aid to the wealthiest nation on the planet during a crisis it can clearly handle (or it thinks it can) is pointless.

With the New Orleans flood prevention and disaster preparation money, in Iraq.

sorry its spelled Griff...