Election Predictions
 

Here's the way I see it...

The final electoral vote totals will be as follows:

George W. Bush (GWB):

Alabama - 9
Alaska - 3
Arizona - 10
Arkansas - 6
Colorado - 9
Florida - 27
Georgia - 15
Idaho - 4
Indiana - 11
Iowa - 7
Kansas - 6
Kentucky - 6
Louisiana - 9
Mississippi - 6
Missouri - 11
Montana - 3
Nebraska - 5
Nevada - 5
North Carolina - 15
North Dakota - 3
Oklahoma - 7
South Carolina - 6
South Dakota - 3
Tennessee - 11
Texas - 34
Utah - 5
Virginia - 13
West Virginia - 5
Wyoming - 3

TOTAL = 261


John F. Kerry (JFK):

California - 55
Connecticut - 7
District of Columbia - 3
Delaware - 3
Hawaii - 4
Illinois - 21
Maine - 4
Maryland - 10
Massachusetts - 12
Michigan - 17
Minnesota - 10
New Hampshire - 4
New Jersey - 15
New Mexico - 5
New York - 31
Ohio - 20
Oregon - 7
Pennsylvania - 21
Rhode Island - 4
Vermont - 3
Washington - 11
Wisconsin - 10

TOTAL = 277

The vote in Colorado will be split 6-3 in favor of GWB so the adjusted
totals are:

Bush = 258
Kerry = 280

I also predict it will take 2 weeks or more to settle all the disputes among the lawyers and recounts in all the close states, with some serious funny business reported at polling places in Florida, and at all the locations with electronic voting machines without a paper trail.

I have been occasionally checking various psychic sites for information regarding the race. Everybody is hedging their bets, indicating it's too close to call, that there is going to be a lot of contention, etc.

No shit. I get that on the evening news. From a psychic, I want something more, um ... predictive, dammit.

Then I found this guy. I was checking out the magazine for another reason. I've actually met Jacob, he's a sweet old guy, and the only psychic I've seen that makes an actual pick.

Of course he's not technically a psychic. He's an astrologer.

I'll see your "two weeks" and up you one more.

I think Kerry will win in the first round, but then the 6,000 voters on Colorado's felon list will all have their votes invalidated, making Bush the winner after weeks of post elections escapades behind the scenes. :yeldead:
BTW, Wolf, speaking of psychics, the virtual I Ching http://www.virtualiching.com/visitor...chstarsvis.php
has Kerry winning with the hexagram for "Biting Through" or "Thunder."

Bush will win Colorado....BUT.....In Colorado they have a ballot initiative to split the state's electoral votes based on the percentage of people who vote for a particular candidate. This will make Colorado the third state to do this.

It looks very much like this will pass and here's the best part, IT APPLIES TO THIS ELECTION!! This means that Bush won't get the full 9 electoral votes for Colorado. It could be a 5-4 split or a 6-3 split. In either case, Bush will lose electoral votes and Kerry will gain some that he otherwise wouldn't have gotten.

Does it look like that will pass? Last I heard (a week or two ago), it wasn't too popular.

Bush, comfortably
 

I'm not going to do the breakdown, but it will be Bush by a comfortable electoral margin. His people will talk about "landslide", but that will be overdone. The popular vote will be closer, but in favor of Bush by a definite margin.

Too rich for my blood.

That, I wouldn't mind having a piece of. Bush will lose the popular vote by more than 10 million votes.

Here's the sccop on Colorado as presented by "USA Today" : http://www.usatoday.com/news/politic...o-voters_x.htm

I feel honored that my state may end up this election's Florida. And only a couple of months ago I thought Colorado was dull, boring, and glum. It may still be glum, but certainly not dull and boring! :eek:

So your vote may actually count, Marichko. Are you going to vote?

I wish I had a voice.

Tell me about it. At least I get to vote for a guy I know for School Board.

I still remember the first time one of my guys won.....Clinton in 1992. I voted but wasnt counting on it, never happened before, just went out for BBQ and hurray! They had happy returns on the bar TV. So its my ritual. Tomorrow, its vote, work, dont fret and go out for BBQ.

Of course, I'm going to vote! Even if Colorado weren't being so hotly contended for in the presidential race, there are plenty of local candidates I care about and for whom I DO believe every vote matters! :us:

I wish all the states would split their electoral votes proportionally according to the popular vote of that state. It would mean we'd virtually eliminate the possibility of one man getting more votes by American citizens but still losing the election. I wish we'd also have runoff voting. You vote for who you'd rather have first, second, and third in that order, and the one with the most votes wins. This would give third parties a real chance.

We have that system here in Australia, but we call it preferential voting. It works very well, except that in the senate we end up with huge ballot papers (78 candidates in my state), and if you want to give preferences, you have to number the whole ballot. One mistake, and your vote is invalidated. Most people take the easy option, and just place a "1" against their preferred party (this means they choose not to give preferences). It is easier in our lower house, because you have a much smaller number of candidates, but in the lower house ballot, preference voting is compulsory, so you have to number every candidate.

Kerry is going to win because he has rounded up all the first-time voter malcontents.

HaHaHa! I hope you're right! :p

electoral-vote.com has already called it for Kerry, and he seems to be winning as of the latest polls. They're predicting the average 2:1 split against the incumbent party in undecided voters, which is a pretty historically accurate figure....

I posted this in another thread, but...

http://sycamoreland.com/images/electionmap.gif

Gee, and here I thought the media was bad for calling it early in 2000. But now the voters are, too?

Prediction
 

Kerry 267 Kerry 257
Bush 271 or Bush 281

I don't think Kerry is going to take Missouri or Florida, as shown in the map from sycamore, I just don't think it's going to happen. Accordingly, I don't think West Virginia is a given for Bush, but is strong to go Bush. I heard one elector is thinking about going Kerry if Bush starts to win an electoral battle. Ohio is not looinkg good for GW though, I think he's going to loose that, but Florida and Missouri I'm not too sure about. Furthermore, states that Kerry has taken for granted, like my home state of NJ, I would be watchful of, your going to see much more Republican votes here than anticipated. NJ is a very segreagated state for all intents and purposes, with disparate populations living in separate communities to a larger extent. In suburban communities here all you see are Bush signs, these are the same communites that have a municipal police force that will stop anybody that's a shade or two darker than the resident population The large Dem voting blocks exist in the inner cities and the surrounding areas like Newark, Camden, etc., but 9/11 is a wild card in this election for the state of NJ, that's why you saw Bush campaining here, even traditionally democratic voters have shifted, and I don't think it's been handled too well by the polls. I think it's not going to be a blow away victory in any event, for either candidate. In the end I hand a narrow victory to GW.

-Walrus

As far as battleground states go, Bush will get AZ, MO, TN, AR, NV, FL, IA, and WV, but it's not going to help him, because Kerry will get OH, PA, NM, NH, WI, OR, MN, ME, and WA.

This means out of the 18 battleground states, Bush will get 77 Electoral Votes and Kerry will get 114.

Some consider CO to be a battleground state too. Bush will win in CO. If the ballot measure to divide the electoral votes proportionally (as all states should do), Bush will lose some of their 9 electoral votes.

Bush will surely lose today, and it couldn't happen to a more deserving person.

As if it's a fact
 

Sorry to rain on your parade Radar, but none of us have an idea who's going to win this one, so why act as if what your saying is the future. Judging by the closing statement of your post, I can see where the hopes of your estimating lies. I could never say Bush should win, but I tend to think MN, and some other surprises lie in store for the Kerry camp. To debate how the numbers are going to fall is presumptious as it is ridiculous although I made my own feeble attempt in my last post. In some cases anectdotal evidence is better, especially considering our experience with traditional polling in 2000, ie. it's unreliable in many cases, especially in close contests, and especially at trying to calculate results at the local level. My assertion of a GW win is largely based on my belief that popular elections like this are now fixed at the local level. The advent of the "battleground" state, not only stems from a divided electorate, but it stems from the knowledge by both parties that voting irregularities in the states can be manipulated. If you can influence turnout in a couple of key states, its not just about votes, but about mounting pressure through litigation and intimiation to effect the outcome and final tallying of those votes. Don't trust the polls!!!!

-Walrus

Here here! I'm not getting my hopes up just yet, but I can't wait to see the look on his smug face if he has to give a concession speech tonight. :p

My prediction: Woodrow Wilson. Apparently he's won every year the Red Sox have won the World Series.

(stolen from a caller to the Ron & Fez radio show, accuracy not checked)

Dubya? Concession speech? He would NEVER! NEVER! He doesn't know HOW to give concession! If he loses, and I sincerely hope he does, I'll betcha he just sticks his tongue out at us all and zips away in his spaceship.

Sorry, but a spaceship would hint at intelligent life. He'd crawl back under his rock.

For exit poll results try this site : http://www.slate.com/id/2109053/

5 pm Zogby
 

I thought Radar was nuts until I saw this Zogby poll. I still think Radar is nuts in general, but he might actually be close.

Keep in mind that Zogby is playing with some razor thin margins here. To see the whole poll, go to www.zogby.com