Here they Come Again!
 

Alberto Beryl Chris Debby Ernesto Florence Gordon
Helene Isaac Joyce Kirk Leslie Michael Nadine
Oscar Patty Rafael Sandy Tony Valerie William

Hurricane season started 1 Jun. Four tropical storms have occurred. Debby is landing on the Gulf coast.

Rarely do any form this early in the season. Ironically the National Hurricane center is predicting a normal hurricane season of 9 to 15 tropical storms. 4 to 8 being hurricanes. And 1 to 3 being a major hurricane

Hiding out in the Rockies (Colorado) is Dr Gray. He predicts slightly less activity. 13 tropical storms. 5 hurricanes. 2 major hurricanes.

It's the little things that make you human, tw. I love your hurricane obsession, no joking.

Debby is apparently churning slowly off the coast but causing tornadoes already. Could be an interesting storm if it picks up speed and makes landfall in SW Florida.

Consider the weather we've had the past 9 months. In general, all the seasons and seasonal markers (first snow, last frost, etc) have come 3-6 weeks early for just about every part of the country. Here in the mideast swamp, we didn't have much of a winter, spring temperatures and weather patterns were showing up in early February, our first 90+ degree day of the year was also in February, tree pollen came out early and there were tropical systems showing up as much as 10 days before the historical start. So I wouldn't be surprised if we ended up with an unremarkable (in terms of stats) hurricane season this year... it's just that instead of June 1 to Nov 1, it'd be more like May 20 to... what... middle of October? If this early pattern continues, I'll be surprised if a storm forms in October at all.

Wouldn't it be cool if there was a hurricane Spock?

I would be really easy to predict too, since it would only follow the most logical path.;)

A few days ago, it had only a 20% chance of becoming a named storm. It is now called Ernesto. If it follows the track of previous weather, then it should pass south of Cuba and land somewhere in the center Gulf of Mexico. Maybe by Tuesday.

Gulf has achieved water temperatures approaching 85 degrees F (30 degrees C). With even warmer water in the center. Once that 20% storm got into the warmest water in the Atlantic, it became a tropical storm. We should expect it to become a hurricane in the even warmer Gulf. Most probable target may be Mexico or south since prevailing winds have been southbound. However that could easily change by next week.

Now would be a good time to start stocking for this year's hurricane party.

It would be even more interesting if it veers further West and Debby Does Dallas.

If Ernesto does Dallas, then extremists will preach the evils of being gay. Any excuse to promote a political agenda.

Ernesto is now predicted to enter the Gulf as expected. But another tropical storm has formed before even getting half way across the Atlantic. Before even getting into warmer water. Florence has a slightly more northern track that could threaten the east coast USA. Or maybe it just takes a right turn and heads for the Olympics. Making it in time for the closing ceremonies.

I believe Katrina was only a tropical depression when it was in that same area.

It was a tropical storm - downgraded to a tropical depression.

As of course you should well know...:right:

It's as if there's a political agenda with a man waggling from it. Koyaanisqatsi, baby.

Hiya UG. Long time, no see.

I consider your assessment of tw's balance a highly informed one.

As so many previous hurricanes also did. It is in a colder water region. Therefore woud not remain a tropical storm. What it can become will not be apparent until it moves back into warmer water. We will know this weekend.

Ernesto took the southern path. The Yucatan Pennisula will rip it apart.

Some go to Mexico for a quickie divorse. Others go for a name change. Hurricane Ernesto went to Mexico. Emerged in the Pacific. And is now called Tropical Storm Hector. Well, at least he did not get a sex change.

Well. Where the eff is my hurricane?

TW - I hold you personally responsible.

Hey! If Bri gets to have a hurricane, I want one too. All we have here is the boring old monsoon. Well, and the occasional forest fire.

I sent a virus to NOAA. You should see changes in your weather maps in a couple of days.

Meanwhile, I consulted some people in Argentina. They said they would chase butterflies. But admitted flapping butteryfly wings probably only create tornados in Alabama; and not hurricanes in your venue.

You sir are being watched.

I happen to know for a fact that tw raises large butterflies and moths and lets them lose at random intervals. No doubt Homeland Security will be closing in on him soon.

Mutant butterflies?!?!

Thanks to the miracles of modern technology, we know when and where Capt Kirk will be born. And now know how Godzilla and Mothra were created.

Finally. Celebrity status without the paparazzi.

Don't feel too left out. Hector will not make LA. Gordon decided to be well north of Bermuda before taking on a name. Even Kai-Tak decided to veer away from Tiawan and the Philippines to wander aimlessly in the South China sea.

A worldwide shortage of hurricanes exists. You were not singled out. Weather tourism is down everywhere. We just can't get a hurricane to visit anyone anymore.

Apparently Argentina needs more butterflies.

We cannot get a hurricane no matter how hard we ask. Even Hurricane Gordon is heading to Spain or France.

What do we have to do? Bring back George Jr?

Unless perhaps any collection of Republicans would do.

Isaac's Track

It's gonna hit the keys (including the best key - west) and then hit NOLA.

Good gracious those people down there must be sick of teh gheys causing all this havoc.

Issac's track said it would never be anything serious. Since the mountains of Cuba and Haiti would be particually destructive. But now the good new. Issac is targeting the heavy drought regions of the Misissippi River. Just in time to dead corn from Arkansas to Illinios wet.

we're supposed to get two inches of rain off this 'caine. I hope so. But poor NOLA!

:tinfoil: alert:

According to Rush Limbaugh, Issac's trajectory and movement is Obama's Big Government Attempt to ruin the Tampa convention and strike the same area Katrina did 7 years ago. Maybe... if we vote Obama in again, he won't let the hurricanes hit us anymore?

:rolleyes:


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/0...m_hp_ref=media

CW: see Repubtard thread and Funny Political Pictures. ;)

Awww someone got it before me? Dang... this was the first thread I saw today :)

http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m9...dsvfo1_500.jpg
http://content.screencast.com/users/...09-03_1531.png
http://content.screencast.com/users/...09-03_1546.png

I can't source the latter images but

HERE is the source for the first image, or click on the image itself

nyuk nyuk nyuk

The hurricane season is essentially finished for this year. Most storms either took a popular 2010 path via the Carribean and into the Pacific. More took a path headed for Europe. For example, Leslie in late August desolved in the eastern Atlantic and became heavy rain in Europe. Many potential tropical storms only made land in Europe as rain. Nadine has been wandering aimlessly in circles for a few weeks in the Eastern Atlantic south of the Azores. Most hurricanes like to travel and don't survive that long.

2012 Hurricanes are in red. Tropical storms in yellow.

It was a pretty mild season. My favorite kind.

Approaching the UK from the southeast are remnants of what was once called Hurricane Nadine. First clouds from that storm are making landfall.

Nadine was very unusual in that it remained wandering the central Atlantic since declared a tropical storm on 11 September. She became a very old lady.

Those raindrops in the Midlands and Ireland are dying remnants of a once proud hurricane.

Nadine, honey is that you?

A tiny group of storms slowly crossed the Atlantic on a track that diverted previous storms north towards the British Isles. This one was always a 'less than 10% chance' of becoming a tropical storm. Instead of hooking north, it moved slowly north of the Bahamas. Then suddenly, in only 24 hours, it became tropical storm Patty. A debutant.

Most all storms at this location head north or northwest up the Atlantic coast. This one is headed south west towards the Gulf. Well the Gulf has cooled since 22 Aug. At best, Patty may live long enough to become a cute hurricane.

Most all storms have taken off for Europe this year. So many hurricanes. And not two even strike the US mainland. Today, Tropical Storm Tony was born. Only one year previous did we have so many potential hurricanes as to run out of names. Only Valerie and William are left.

Stop sounding so disappointed. ;)

Not to worry, Sandy is on the job.

I guess this would be a good time to buy a bar of soap.

East coast US is (from some news services) being hyped into fear of Sandy. Mostly displaced.

History. 51 years ago, a March Nor'ester stalled off New Jersey's coast. Most Nor'esters and hurricanes go flying past. But in 1962, a high pressure system near Greenland caused that Nor'ester to stall for three days (five high tides) off the DE and NJ coasts. The resultant tidal surge on barrier islands was extensive - well over 10 feet.

This is not a powerful hurricane - barely category one. But it is large and is predicted to stall at the same location as in 1962. Therefore resulting tidal swell may be about 6 feet. Not a problem to any facility or location that did responsible construction.

But Sandy will dump heavy rain for days. Barrier islands have sewers that cannot slope sufficiently. So barrier islands have pumping stations. Water drops maybe into 12 foot deep wells. Then pumped out. Those pumps are not sufficient for long heavy rains. So flooded streets will be routine.

No problem. Any responsible homeowner already decided to visit distant friends. The resulting floods will not destroy any decent building. Any responsible auto owner left town.

Inland is another problem. Leaves are still on trees. One year ago, this same week, a snow storm caused these problem. Heavy rain and wind from any serious storm means trees take out power lines. Isolated outages because America still puts electric wires overhead on poles. So some will be without power for days; maybe a week. No problem except where news hypes this as the end of the world.

The problem is not a hurricane. The problem is heavy rain and normal wind for any serious storm that continues for days. So a responsible homeowner takes the usual precautions.

For example, one gallon containers are now in the freezer. As each freezes, it is moved to the refrigerator while a few more freeze. Then by Monday, maybe six plus gallons of frozen water remain frozen in the refrigerator. That means frozen and refrigerated foods remain cold for days. Usual precautions for any major storm.

Don't let hype create fear. If on barrier islands, then take a vacation. Have some working flashlights and sufficient gas in the car. Have some cash. If near streams or rivers that usually flood, then move stuff away. If in a home that usually floods, then expect to have what you bought the house to enjoy. Isolated problems will exist. You know from past storms what to expect (ie residents of the Delaware River).

Ocean wave heights are 30 feet in category two and three hurricanes. Curiously, this only category one storm is creating 27 feet waves. That is probably due to the size of this just barely category one storm. So significant beach erosion is expected. Damage will be mostly where buildings should never have been constructed. Or where beach is significantly missing due to rock walls on the beach or (and just as bad) lining inlets.

Possible that it could become worse. A storm isolated off the Jersey coast will drive water up the Delaware, Raritan, and Hudson Rivers. Maybe causing flooding where flooding does not normally happen. Potentially made worse by a full moon. Caution applies.

typo/droll lol.

Local gossip has subverted all other TV. Even the network news is not available. So Sandy has landed in Cape May after 1800 hours on Monday at the most southern county in New Jersey. A news reporter stands on a hotel balcony adjacent to the ocean in Cape May. Big waves. Street flooding. Nothing hazardous. What anyone would expect from a barely category one hurricane. Only 50 MPH winds. If it was hazardous, those hotel windows would be blowing in. Something that most people should evacuate for. But only a typical bad storm.

A trivial category one. How many category fours and fives have struck Tiawan, Japan, Korea, Phillippines, and China this year?

Below radar map shows rain. Almost no rain north of the hurricane (Atlantic City - ACY to New York) as the hurrican makes landfall. The data buoy adjacent to the remains of this hurricane never saw waves higher than 20 feet. Most concern is rain that precedes this hurricane.

The storm should have only required advisories. Not the 'end of the world' hype that also occurs with heavier snow storms. So, where is the flooding?

Black dots indicate locations that are at flood stage. Most black dot are in locations where heavy construction makes flooding routine. The local gossip routinely goes to the same bridge in Darby Twp that always floods. Demonstrating how desperate they are for pictures to support their hype.

As Sandy made landfall, two maps (for New Jersey and Pennsylvania) demonstrate the usual flooding regions that become a concern. Black is flood stage. Blue is high but not yet flooding. Green is a half full river. Red is low flow.

Most flooding is in and around Philadelphia as demonstrated by that earlier posted radar (rainfall) map:

You sound disappointed. I'll be very pleased if this storm wimps out.

No he's pleased as punch it didn't live up to a week's worth of hype.
Glatt, the Philly NBC, ABC, CBS, and FOX, stations have had nothing but storm coverage. I mean nothing, as tw mentioned, not even national network news.

Turns out the triviality of this storm totally depended on where you were. In the NoVA suburbs of DC, lots of 'meh' and 'well that was interesting!' and some flooding, downed trees and power outages, not unlike the aftermath of a rough batch of summer thunderstorms.

In downtown and midtown NY, Apocalyptic. No other words.

The Derecho of 2012 was far far worse for NoVA than this hurricane was.

But not as bad as a nova would be for NoVA.

Midtown is fine. Downtown - evacuated part of Manhatttan - is suffering.

Damage is also greater in other places where people refused to evacuate. Staten lsland alone may account for half of all deaths. Because people ignored informed advise. Converting what should only have been flooding into maybe 40 deaths. (Philly local gossip never reported this.)

yeah, but there's always some nut cases who don't evacuate no matter WHAT. It's encoded in their DNA or something. If people are told to evacuate and they don't I say let Darwin deal with the fallout.

But what if they already had kids? Darwin ain't gonna help us then.

They keep their kiddies with them. Nobody evacuates, nowhere, notime.

haven't you seen the pics of the kids riding earth-movers to get away from the flood waters? The kiddies will drown right with mama like God intended.

Yeah but we were in its rather large bulls-eye. We weren't for this one, we got a glancing blow on the weaker side of the system. That's what I'm saying, the seriousness of the impact totally depends on where you were.

Downtown then. They still got boned whether or not there were people there when it hit. Even if there were 0 people in NY and immediate environs when the thing hit, the public and private property damage was horrendous.