China conducts first test-flight of stealth plane
 

Wow. I can't remember the last time I logged on here. Years maybe! Long time no see! So I'm looking for educated input here. If the US, who has the largest defense budget in the world by far, is trying to down grade thier (our) military & focus on rapid mobilization & anti insurgent tactics, (rightly so) why is China dumping mass $$ into a stealth fighter that is predominately effective only in a mass modern war. A concept that most experts view as a thing of the past. Cold war days. I have allways had faith in the Cellar. Enlighten me.

I forgot. It's been awhile.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12159571

To defend North Korea with? Perhaps China believes that the North will eventually exceed the South's tolerance for harassment, either in quality or quantity, and that retaliation is inevitable. :2cents:

That implies complete ignorance of what is ongoing inside China. For example, if you understand China, then you understand why the Chinese military would not tell the central party leadership about a crash between a Chinese fighter plane and a US spy plane. Those reasons why start to explain the so many different power brokers with different agendas in China.

Unfortunatley too many only see black and white, monolithic governments with one totalitarian leader, and other Limbaugh style logic. China is a far more interesting, confusing, complex, and serious set of forces. For example, what are China's strategic objectives? Long before answering China's military developments, one must have answers to that far more important question.

SHADOW! What took you so long to get here? You know I don't typically post in this kind of thread. I just wanted to see if you were going to come and quote me; or, the thread's creator. So predictable, damn parasite.:lol2:

People are very upset with Wikileaks for giving out secret US documents.

But I have wondered in the past, and now with this stealth plane being debuted in China,
just how do other countries make such rapid engineering progress.
I assume it has taken the US many years to develop the stealth designs and materials.
Did China really develop their designs independently of the US ?

We now know that Russia received documents for many years that kept them abreast of US weaponry.
But are these other countries (China, Iran, North Korea) likewise able to copy design developments ?
It would almost require them to penetrate each and every US company working on a project needed for a viable weapon.

I don't believe they are getting copies via Wikileaks.
Maybe I'm just paranoid enough to believe they are getting data
straight from the US government or from our allies.

Our allies haven't exactly proven themselves on the up & up with us.
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/spy-t...g_us_musl.html
But you have to ask about motivation. I can see maybe Israel, hypothetically, getting their hands on complete tech info for the F-22 and, not having a need to build a stealth fighter themselves, might sell it. But with the vast amounts of cash nations throw at each other, the price tag doesn't seem worth risking the loss of the US as an ally. It's one thing to steal plans for spy cameras & drones to use themselves. It's another to jeopardize US air supremacy by selling stealth tech to a rival super power.

I think I found the answer to my question. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12154991 The only thing is I thought I heard that we were so in debt with China, a war between the 2 would cripple China economically.

Take special note of proper nouns used in your citations. They did not say China or Central Party. They often said PLA. A major and important distinction that so many will overlook. Many assume a monolithic China. Then assume PLA is just another word for China. There is no monolithic China. There is no monolithic N Korea. Those who assume otherwise may fail to read what the author was really writing.

We are not downgrading, we're rearranging response priorities. Making the left jab more effective doesn't negate the haymaker right, it enhances it. China is seeking what we've already got.

For Israel, it started with the Rosenburgs, and has continued unabated.
We have so many immigrants, many still foreign nationals, working in high tech industries that do research/development/manufacturing for the defense department, the secrets are often out of the country before the military ever gets them. They just prosecuted an Engineer at Boeing, who had been selling tech data to China for a decade. He said although he was paid for it, his primary motivation was his Chinese heritage.
We also have a tremendous number of foreign students rotating though our higher educational system. They return home with a long list of frat-brothers/classmates, who can be probed later for possible deals without raising suspicion.
Even in a tightly controlled totalitarian society, there is only so much that can be done to prevent data theft. The best prevention is national loyalty, and that's problematic in our "embracing diversity" culture.

"If we could just get rid of all the damn furriners"
So said Chief Rain In the Face when he stumbled over Plymouth Rock

It seems implausible to me that an entire stealth fighter could be reproduced
by one or even thousands of individual employees,
regardless of their nationality or heritage.

I would look to purposeful governmental or corporate maneuverings

Chief Rain in the Face knew their loyalty was not here, and their loyalty, above all else, would govern their actions.

They don't need the entire plane, only key secret technologies, the rest of the shit they can get online. I've seen a complete breakdown of who's making what, and how the assembly goes together. The only thing missing was the technology for how the components operated, and only a small part of that is new.

You have hit the nail on the head, TW. If we understand China's strategic objectives, the reasons for China's actions will become clear.

China has not developed the stealth bomber just so they can flip the US government the bird.

Historically, China has always been xenophobic. In more recent times the atrocities visited upon China by Japan in WWII and now the terrorist attacks of 9/11 have ensured that China is highly mistrustful of other nations.

It is important for the Chinese goverment to overcome forces for separatism, extremism, and terrorism which are rampant in some parts of China and which challenge both China's economic prosperity and government stability.

China would also like to develop oil markets for itself in Central Asia and other regions. This has become even more important due to poor Chinese-Russian energy relations.

As far as being able to obtain the necessary materials to produce highly destructive weapons, that's a global problem, not just a Chinese one.

All that AND when you look at a map, China is surrounded by competitors on all borders, who have changed at different rates. They have nations on three different sides who are on the Most Likely To Suddenly Become Assholes list. Any nation would look at that map and figure they need to be able to get serious.

Until they have an entry on the list of aircraft carriers in service, they can't project force on a global basis.

So why doesn't China have an aircraft carrier?

How long does it take to build up a navy? The are growing really fast. They have basically pulled themselves into the modern world by their bootstraps in a decade. You'd think that would have included a navy.

I don't know. It seems like a pretty difficult thing to do, but China has a space program.

There's one other thing I've heard about, which is that almost all oil inbound to eastern China goes through the Strait of Malacca, which is a 20 mile space between Singapore and Indonesia. If somebody was angry with China, for, say, invading Taiwan, they could cut off oil pretty easily and face China down with the limited amount of oil China has in reserve. That's where I'd send the carrier first, just to say, hey we might have a say here too.

The wikipedia entry for the Varyag is interesting.

China bought an under construction Soviet aircraft carrier that had been stripped down to its bare hull. They planned to use it as a floating hotel/casino, but that was either a cover all along, or the details broke down, and it never happened. The hull was towed to China, but broke loose from its tow line at one point during a storm off Greece, killing a skeleton crew member. When it finally reached China, at a towing cost of $5 Million, it was abandoned for a while. And it's now being rebuilt by the Chinese navy to use as a carrier. But it's not a full service carrier, because when it was being built originally for the Soviet Union, the only way it would be allowed to pass through Turkey to the Mediterranean is if it wasn't designated an aircraft carrier. So it has limited functions, which I don't really understand. It looks like a carrier to me.

They've historically had an extremely insular culture, and aircraft carriers are all about projecting force far from your borders. While I'm sure they wouldn't mind having one (Varyag), there are probably plenty of things far higher on their agenda.

The Economist just did a multipage article about the growth of China and specifically it's military. Until recently the Chinese never really had a cause to project their power beyond their immediate region. They have acquired a few subs from the Russians and are masters are re-engineering much of their military hardware. My guess is they will steal their way into the 21st Century via industrial espionage.

http://www.economist.com/node/179029...ry_id=17902953

http://www.economist.com/node/179086...ry_id=17908622

From looking at Undertoads link, Owning an aircraft carrier seems a verry exclusive club. Out of 9 nations only 3 have more then 1. I don't know what goes into building one, but it's probably economically crippling. Hell, I'm shocked to see the UK only has 2 & Russia only has one.

They are currently building one. Fast. If I remember correctly they are fastest growing navy in the world right now.

Undertoad basically said what I have heard as well. Almost all trade from the Indian Ocean to Pacific Ocean goes through the Strait of Malacca (Singapore anyone??) and for the past 60 years it has been protected solely by the US Navy. I doubt China is seriously worried about the US or India, they are building a navy as well, shutting it down because of the economic consequences to all countries but it is in China's best interests to be able to protect their interests in the strait and Chinese funded ports in Pakistan and Indonesia themselves.


China will be interesting to watch in the upcoming century. There are predictions that they will attempt to control their surrounding area in similar manner that the US solidified regional power in the Americas. Gain sole naval control of the South China Sea (Caribbean Sea) and build a canal through Thailand (Panama).

Remember Reagan's "Bear in the woods" commercials

Reagan embarked on building a 600-ship navy, and succeeded by the end of his second term.

Then Congress turned $ around and now the fleet is/has been reduced.

No catapult, severely limiting the types of aircraft it can handle, ie no serious fighters.

The UK will retire those two when their new one comes on line. The new one is $5 billion+.

An aircraft carrier is a massive expense. It has very limited functions. Is mostly about show.

The PLA took a slap in the face when Clinton stopped their aggressive behavior by sailing to carriers through the straits of Formosa. A carrier can slap the face of a nearby land force. And if the Chinese attacked it, well, even the PLA understood a negative political problem that creates.

Therefore the PLA decided it needed to learn technology. That military strength by numbers alone does not make it. Suddenly generals who said so were in power. And so the PLA has been in a 15 year program of becoming a technologically informed power.
China has an aircraft carrier under construction. It may appear in two years. But far more serious is the threat to all carrier fleets. Submarines and naval attack missiles. Missiles such as carried by the Kursk. And Exocet - an oldest technology – are still major threats. Carriers are limited pieces. Were completely useless in Desert Storm. Had almost no useful functions in Mission Accomplished. Mostly due to inferior planes, excessive costs, and a platform that can barely defend it self.

Appreciate what the Palins, Limbaughs, O’Donnels, and Cheneys in China are saying. China has already declared oceans down to Malaysia and out to lower Japanese island as property of China. Everyone here should already know about the Spratly, Parcel, and Senkaku/ Diaoyu islands. If you don’t, you know virtually nothing about China in an international world. These are focal points that define one major power block in China.

Which China is saying what? The Americans were told that China would take care of the Western Pacific. That America can have the eastern Pacific. So Vietnam is setting up to become a naval repair facility for the US Navy. There are consequences when one is more interested in their ego (we must be #1) rather than concentrating on things that make one #1 (we will innovate).

You see these same problems in business. Businesses who must be #1 - screw everyone else (AIG, GM) only did massive harm to themselves and all other Americans. Business that strived to innovate and grow into new markets (HP, Intel, the new attitude in Ford) are what make an economy, people, and the world a productive and peaceful place.

Unfortunately the PLA attitude is about reestablishing a Chinese domination over their rightful empire. Not all of China is saying that. But that is the same attitude that made so many American allies turn less friendly to America in the 2000s.

It certainly did not help when enemies of America in America became extremists. When China tried to buy an oil company - Unocal. Patriotic (educated) Americans knew this deal was proper and necessary. China that is growing needed the company. America who needed the money should have sold IF Americans are into business; not egos. These American extremists were telling China that only first class countries can own oil companies. IOW American extremists only empowered Chinese extremists. That 'not making the sale' disaster created by American howling will have consequences even 20 years later.

Do we decide to empower their extremists? Or empower Chinese who would do business - grow their nation into a member of the world?

UK has so severely subverted its economy with international military adventures (is Mission Accomplished) as to have no money for any aircraft carriers. It may be French pilots sometimes flying from that British carrier. And that carrier may have to be sold or mothballed after four years.

No reasone to keep the old carriers. Harrier jets must be scrapped. No useful planes means a carrier is a threat to no one.

Conflicts are created or averted by little things performed decades previous. For example, wacko extremists did what their knowledge and ideology told them to do. Do no planning for the peace. Violate basic military doctrines well defined even 2000 years before Columbus was born. These ideologues left Schwarzkopf to invent terms of Iraqi surrender; on the fly in 1990. As a result, a spectacular military victory was tarnished by ignorant civilians not doing the most important task in any war: negotiations at the peace table.

Not only were tens of thousands of Iraqis massacred in Basra. But America reneged on an even more important promise. We promised to leave. We lied. We remained for 20 more years. We could not have done more to inspire future wars and international terrorism. We only inspired wacko extremists - ideologue American citizens and Muslim radicals.

Obviously, stupidity expressed by dumb American extremists (ie Project for a New American Century) only created more problems. By even stating we must protect *OUR* oil. Rhetoric that even created the most famous Muslim radical: bin Laden and Al Qaeda. We are still paying the price of stupidity by extremists Cheney, Wolfowitz, Rumsfled, George Jr, Feith, et al.

To not learn history means reliving history. Wars are averted, only by moderates, long before the first conflict occurs. Informed (patriotic) Americans also know about confrontations over the Parcel, Spratley, and Bajo de Masinloc islands. Chinese confrontations with Vietnam and Philippines. Numerous Chinese naval vessels trapped a Philippines Coast Guard vessel for almost a week. Being uninformed was also why George Jr, et al massacred 5000 American servicemen to no purpose. Learn from history. Conflict due to what happened years and decades previous. And because some citizens remain uninformed.

Situation in the South China Sea gets worse because Chinese wacko extremists are now inspired and quite vocal. From the Malaya Business News are facts that should have every Cellar Dweller concerned: China declared ownership of the South China Sea even up to Philippine beaches. If an adult and an American, you have no business not knowing this.

Easily identify Cellar extremists who see solutions in big guns, war, and Limbaugh lies. China has similar people. Chinese extremists are now demanding China go to war to take back what belongs only to China. The South China Sea.

Diplomacy is desperately needed to defang wacko extremists. A solution means empowering China's educated moderates. Actions only today will avert wars years or a generation from now.

Threats extend beyond the South China Sea. Chinese wacko extremists (who talk so much like Urbane Guerrilla or Adak) have said the US can have the eastern Pacific. That China will take charge of the western Pacific. Within China is a discussion no different from rhetoric posted in the Cellar. A political agenda that advocated Mission Accomplished and other military crusades.

Watch Chinese equivalents recite similar 'Mission Accomplished' rhetoric about the Senkaku Islands. From The Economist of 19 Jan 2013: For the first time since 1987, Japan has empowered their pilots with rules of engagement to attack foreign aircraft. Japan has been constructing their first aircraft carriers in 70 years. No accident that a hardliner (Shinzo Abe) was restored as Prime Minister. Reasons for a future war have been that obvious for at least a decade.

Only moderates can avert a potential war. By defanging extremists before extremists make conflict inevitable. American wacko extremists advocated war over a silly spy plane. Only moderates (ie Colin Powell) averted war openly advocated by Cheney, Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz, etc. By ignoring that lesson, we later massacred 5000 soldieres in Mission Accomplished.

Every adult citizen must know what can get worse in the western Pacific. Not knowing defines an irresponsible citizen. Western Pacific countries have long understood the threat. Every patriotic American must understand why extremists on all sides should be mocked. Otherwise wacko extremists will massacre more American servicemen for no useful purpose.

That's walmart's problem.

*snort*

Not sure this is the best thread, but...


BBC News
28 May 2013

Chinese hackers 'compromise' US weapons systems designs

future hot conflict.

This breaking into our government files is a cold conflict already.

I posted that because just earlier this morning I was engaged in
a conversation about off-shore manufacturing and how quickly
some identical/similar things appear as new products from other
manufacturers or in other countries.

My argument was along the lines that if a US company elects
to have a foreign manufacturer make it's product, it seems almost
impossible to keep the design/proprietary aspects of it secret.
And despite contractual agreements, $ has a way to copy.

The military says it keeps control over manufacturing... maybe so
But hacking is not mecessarily limited to CIA operations.

Boeing has been outsourcing parts of their commercial jets for years. It was part of selling overseas, often to state owned airlines. But they have always controlled the design/building of the wings... until the new 787. The Japs designed and are building the wings, so tell me why they need Boeing?