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-   -   90% of Medical Research Is Wrong (http://cellar.org/showthread.php?t=23780)

xoxoxoBruce 10-22-2010 08:57 AM

90% of Medical Research Is Wrong
 
Quote:

Are 90% of all medical studies wrong — including nearly half of those claimed to be the most reliable? That's the provocative claim made by researcher John Ioannidis, profiled in this month's issue of The Atlantic.
Well that's a pretty strong accusation.

Quote:

Ioannidis was putting his contentions to the test not against run-of-the-mill research, or even merely well-accepted research, but against the absolute tip of the research pyramid. Of the 49 articles, 45 claimed to have uncovered effective interventions. Thirty-four of these claims had been retested, and 14 of these, or 41 percent, had been convincingly shown to be wrong or significantly exaggerated. If between a third and a half of the most acclaimed research in medicine was proving untrustworthy, the scope and impact of the problem were undeniable. That article was published in the Journal of the American Medical Association.
I wonder if this applies to other areas beside medicine?

link

monster 10-22-2010 08:46 PM

I think it's 85% in other areas.

Flint 10-22-2010 09:58 PM

I work in healthcare, but God help us, it's a ƒucking fiasco that needs to be scrapped from the ground up in this country. If we devoted one one-thousandth of the funds gobbled up by this booming industry toward incentivizing people to eat healthy and get some exercise, we could give away free healthcare and nobody would need it. All we would have to do is stitch up a few car crash victims here and there.

Shawnee123 10-23-2010 11:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Flint (Post 689889)
I work in healthcare, but God help us, it's a ƒucking fiasco that needs to be scrapped from the ground up in this country. If we devoted one one-thousandth of the funds gobbled up by this booming industry toward incentivizing people to eat healthy and get some exercise, we could give away free healthcare and nobody would need it. All we would have to do is stitch up a few car crash victims here and there.

I loved this post!

Flint 10-23-2010 12:03 PM

That's an unfiltered brain dump right there...it just popped out.

Clodfobble 10-23-2010 02:44 PM

I don't know if this is what you meant by "incentivizing," but in my fantasy government, all that money would be specifically poured into subsidizing organic fruits and vegetables--excluding white potatoes, corn and soy--to the point that they were by far the cheapest way to feed a family. And I'd luxury tax the shit out of processed/convenience foods. It'd be all, "Sorry kids, Dad got laid off at the plant, so it's gonna be sweet potatoes, bell peppers, and pineapples for awhile until we get back on our feet. Pass the kale."

Undertoad 10-23-2010 02:46 PM

In other news, Presidential candidate Clodfobble placed 7th in the Iowa caucus, renowned for its corn farmers, and is now considered a long shot. :(

Clodfobble 10-23-2010 04:04 PM

Fuck 'em. This is my fantasy land--I'll be paying them to plow up their corn fields and plant other foods, just like they used to before the government paid them to plow everything up and plant corn.

Pico and ME 10-23-2010 04:53 PM

And then when food companies start making really tasty and addicting snacks from those healthier veggies, the tide will totally change.

Clodfobble 10-23-2010 05:45 PM

That's when the executions start.

TheMercenary 10-26-2010 10:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Flint (Post 689889)
I work in healthcare, but God help us, it's a ƒucking fiasco that needs to be scrapped from the ground up in this country. If we devoted one one-thousandth of the funds gobbled up by this booming industry toward incentivizing people to eat healthy and get some exercise, we could give away free healthcare and nobody would need it. All we would have to do is stitch up a few car crash victims here and there.

I agree, but we would have to have laws to force people to do what we want them to do to be healthier, oh wait, we are already starting to do that.:p:

Flint 10-26-2010 11:11 AM

But you can't force people to go against their instincts; you have to create a set of conditions where their instincts produce the desired results.

TheMercenary 10-26-2010 12:23 PM

As far as I can tell, that has not worked, ever, ever, ever.....look at the obesity, smokers, alcoholics, drug abusers, etc. Take your pick of chronic health conditions related to personal choice......

monster 10-26-2010 01:16 PM

Lung cancer seems to be reducing....

http://www.cancer.gov/aboutnci/servi...shots/lung.pdf

Clodfobble 10-26-2010 05:16 PM

Austin enacted a city-wide smoking ban a couple of years ago. It was a huge brouhaha at the time, and everyone bitched and bitched about personal liberties, and how the bars were gonna lose business, etc. etc... Except it turned out that downtown nightlife business actually went up, and all but the most hardcore of nicotine addicts used it as an excuse to quit smoking. People will quit their bad habits, but only if you make it truly inconvenient/expensive enough.

Shawnee123 10-26-2010 06:41 PM

There will always be deep dark secret alcoves where one can have a smoke.

I get not smoking in restaurants. I'm not there to smoke I'm there to have a meal. So a place, even a bar, with a smoking code is perfectly understandable.

However, I've always felt that each owner of each establishment should make their own call. You can't be around smoke? I apologize, you might not like it here. Whereas the person who offers a smoke-free environment will be patronized by those who like that idea. Something about free enterprise, or something.

Think of all the money spent on legislation to make us healthy. Why, I bet: see Post 3

TheMercenary 10-26-2010 08:19 PM

We had the same thing happen in Savannah, everyone has just gone outside to smoke. If you think it make people stop smoking you will be sorely disappointed.

HungLikeJesus 10-26-2010 08:31 PM

But it doesn't get cold in Savannah.

monster 10-26-2010 08:50 PM

Stopped lots of people here....... (yes, it is cold outside) although most I know said the price was a main factor and the ban was the icing on the cake.

Maybe Merc is just popping his head in the sand a little. No ban on that, yet.

TheMercenary 10-27-2010 09:29 PM

Well....... the Savannah City Council just outlawed smoking in all Bars.......

So no, I don't have my head in the sand....

I support it. My wife and I hate going out and coming home stinking like cigs...

In some places, esp in the winter, it is unbearable. So we just do not go.

monster 10-28-2010 12:10 AM

um, the head in the sand would be about the results, not the bans.... and your support or not is irrelevant....

ZenGum 10-29-2010 03:16 AM

On the medical research ...
What usually happens when a new field opens up is that dozens of individuals (or teams, usually) publish papers on a topic, review each other, repeat each others experiments, publish, develop further et cetera. After a decade or two, someone does a survey article, collecting, comparing and summarising what has been found and repeatedly tested and survived the scrutiny. This is about the best kind of source there is, scientifically. The findings of this article will be the backbone of the next generation of textbooks.

So the message I take from this finding is a reminder not to get too excited about one, or even a couple of articles with a new finding. Anything less than 3 yeas old is insufficiently tested, anything more than 10 is probably out of date.

Oh and did anyone notice, if this is medical research and 90% of medical research is wrong, there is a 90% chance this guy is wrong?

Lamplighter 10-29-2010 08:53 AM

Also Zen, I think the gist of this article is really about whether or not
the meta-researchers are correct when they try to assess the "quality"
of the individual studies being used in the meta-study, and they find that they can not.

It's not really about 90% of all medical research being wrong.
It's about evaluating "odds ratios".


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