Middle Road
 

So, yesterday Australians went to the polls in a federal election.

Today, we're facing the likely possibility of a hung parliament which is where neither side has a majority with which to form a government.

We are a divided nation.

No, no, we just have electile dysfunction.

Current count is Liberal/national coalition: 73

Labor: 72

Green, strongly favours labor: 1

Other independents: 4

What happens next is unlikely to be dignified.

I've whinged about this already in the upsetting you thread.

Ali and Zen would have seen/heard this already, but for anyone outside of Australia reading this thread, all video footage from late last night shows Tony Abbott (and all the major current and ex-Liberals-Malcolm Turnbull, John Howard) being very, very cocky.

I was really sorry to see that Maxine McKew lost her seat of Bennelong. Having said that though, she is still a champion for taking John Howard's seat off him in the last election. Wonder if Lateline will take her back.

And while we're here...very, very disappointed to see that Christopher Pyne won his seat by 7.5% at the last figures I saw. In previous years (before overseas and interstate soujourns), I was registered in his electorate. Given that how long I'll be living where isn't overly certain at the moment, I haven't changed my address on the electoral rolls and was hoping to use my vote against him. Found out about a week before the election though that the electoral boundaries have changed and my address is now in another electorate so DAMN!, DAMN! DAMN! wasn't able to put my vote to good use in the House of Reps.

Am sitting here watching the political commentators and one of them ventured this opinion:

"Although Tony Abbott is a mixed character, he is a certain character." .... (as referred to the "what's mildly upsetting you today" thread), my response to this would be "what? a certain wanker?"

I'll be praying like hell the LNP doesn't snatch power. Either way, I think whoever gets the nod will be stymied anyway, so my prediction is we'll be back to the polls within 6 months, if not sooner.

Was on the phone talking to my Unclue Jim about this on Friday.
They were all going to vote green, because they felt that the best result for the country would be some sort of power sharing option - like the uneasy truce we have at pleasant.

I gave him my opinion of exactly how that was working out (some pretty hardline Tory policies coming through - for example drug treatment programmes having to hit targets or their funding cut - like that'll incentivise the addicts!) He was a little insulted that we've had NO coverage here. NONE. I've sought it out online, but I can't remember a single article in the newspapers until after the event. Of course we don't get a serious paper here, but you should see the coverage French and American politics get. Front page news. Pakistan and Indian news too. Poor old Aus, down there at the bottom of the world.

Well, I was interested anyway.

Check this out.

http://www.sbs.com.au/vote2010/

Here in Merica, we're being told we should all be middle of the road, and not be partisan. I've disagreed, since most things in the middle of the road are road kill. I'm glad to see Australians understand the threat apathy brings.

[ridiculous response] True, the partisans do appear willing to kill us middle of the roaders, but we can still hope for a pluralistic society. I just got done reading Bloody Mohawk, central NewYork/Northern PA are only about 200 years removed from the kill your neighbor to get his stuff mindset so your guys can still win. Keep limiting the 1st Amendment to white Christians and we'll be swimming in blood soon enough.[to ridiculous comment]

I wish it were. :(

I don't think it's apathy that has brought us to this although as with every other country in the world, plenty of people have no interest in politics or their rights with regard to it.

I think the problem is that both major parties are closer to the centre (on the surface) than they'd have us believe, coupled with negative smear campaigns which cause those unwilling or ill equiped to do their own research and inform themselves feel they are all just as bad as each other (which is true anyway) so they cast informal (donkey) votes or just tick any box. Law of averages says there's going to be a pretty equal spread of votes if that's the case.

You can read the indepth analysis if you want to on any Aus news site, and there were some major issues in the mix which seem to have no well developed policy from either side.

I guess if Australians were more actively involved in politics, we might have descended into anarchy by now. :rolleyes:

Australian politics is actually quite interesting now. I would never have expected it.

The house of reps, where government is formed, has 151 members, so 76 is a majority.
We have Labor with prob.72 seats.
The Liberal/National coalition with prob 72 or 73.
One Green who has announced preference for Labor.
Four independents:
One right wing country bloke who left the Nationals because they were too much into economic rationalism, and who wears a really big hat.
One centrist country bloke who left the Nationals because they were not socially progressive enough, and supports boat people/refugees.
One former National who left when they de-selected him for no apparent reason, and took the seat off their new candidate.

These three are policy-wise more inclined to the Liberal / National coalition, but not in all cases, and political-interest wise, are bitter enemies of the Nationals, who are in coalition with the Liberals.

And one left-independent, former labor-member, former greens member, former military, but new to parliament, and calling for immediate support for the logging industry.

Either major party will need the support of at least three of these four to form a government.

Meanwhile, in the upper house, the balance of power will be held by the greens (who prefer labor) but not until new senators take their seats in the middle of next year. (I don't get the delay, but never mind). Until then a Family First (i.e. religious interest party) senator says he will block all bills from a Labor government.

In this context the four independents (mostly the three ex-nationals) are behaving brilliantly; calm, reasonable, politely asking the two major parties to summarise their policies, have them properly costed by treasury, and give reasons why they should be next government. They're actually asking the questions that the major parties avoided during the campaign.

The election was, mostly by chance, a very accurate expression of our political feelings. We didn't like Gillard, we didn't like Abbot, we refuse to elect either of them. Now a few genuine representatives are grilling them for the answers they should have provided before. Brilliant.

OMG! A functional democracy!

Seems to have worked out reasonably well for you.
Good luck.

Jim keeps asking when when I'm going over there.
He seems to forget it's kinda out of the price-range of someone not working...

I'm not so sure, it sounds like three or four people hold an awful lot of power, even if they are good and decent people. Or course it depends, when it comes to actually getting shit done, if Labor, or Liberal/National, will vote as a solid block. It wouldn't take many mavericks to derail the party's plans.

Yeah, it seems more like an accident in this case. I wonder if the queen is busy?... hmmm... the next generation of royalty isn't looking that sharp though.

Seriously though, when you have a severely split electorate it must help a little to force compromise on the politicos. You don't get grand scale things done but you can govern small.

Now ur just like Americans. (not really)

A week later and still no government.

The rumors are starting to circulate. Dirt files are coming out. There are equal boasts from both sides that they have the winning margin.

Either way, nothing is going to get done, and unfortunately Griff, Aus politics doesn't really work so that Federal government representatives can just look after thier own electorate. In a way they can by representing the wishes of their people when it comes time to vote on a national issue, but smaller local issues have to be addressed by the local or state government, depending on which one controls the issue.

Nelson, Lieberman, Snowe, and Collins.

Exactly, that's why I wondered if Griff wasn't overly ecstatic about the Aussies.

The most striking thing about the situation is the total lack of hysteria, noisy protests, and so on. The vote counting won't be finished for a few days, then comes the horse trading, and most people are mildly interested, about the same way we would be in a particularly slow test match of cricket. There is a process to follow and most people seem content with that.

Several of our state governments have been minority governments lately, propped up by a few independent members who are allowed to vote against specific bills if they really want to. That is probably what will happen here.

Longer term, it might also open the door for people to take a third party - the greens - seriously. In the very long term, the greens might end up displacing labor - faction-ridden and union-dominated - as the centre-left social conscience party.

Speak for yourself. I'd say there's much more interest in this than a particularly slow test match of cricket. Too much more time though and people will probably start to switch off (regardless of whether that's the best way to approach the situation or not). At the moment it feels like, having cast their votes, the electorate is fairly powerless until either the new government is formed or another election is called.

Outstanding! :joylove:

Things seem to be moving along with the election results. Labor and the Greens have formed an alliance. I have never seen Bob Brown looking so happy. Wayne Swan (the Treasurer) is as if he's not 100% sure about the arrangement. Tony Abbott is arguing that this coalition, as it is not an established coalition, will not be able to provide results for rural areas. Guess we'll just keep watching and see what happens next.

Labor has turned green, Gillard is tickled pink, Abbott is seeing red, all due to Bob Brown.

Anyone want an update?

The Liberal/national Coalition have 73 seats, or maybe 72, because one chap (Tony Crook, :lol:) says he is going to sit as a cross bencher, despite still being a member of the National Party.

Labour have 72 + 1 + 1 = 74, being their core 72, one green (signed a deal a few days ago) and Wilkie, a left-leaning independent, whose career has involved military service, then defence intelligence analyst, from which position he resigned noisily in 2003 to publicly protest the invasion of Iraq when, as he said at the time, there was no good evidence of WMDs - before the invasion!.

There are three independents left:
Katter: right wing, rough and confrontational type, naive economic politics - wants to peg the dollar and slash interest rates, eg - wears very big hat.
Oakeshott: centre right, social progressive, looks like a school teacher or something.
Windsor: centre-to middle right, less public profile, keeping in background a bit for now.

Labor needs any two of these, coalition needs all three. The three are having a good long think over the weekend, we should probably get an answer early next week.

It really has been fun watching the two major parties finally get grilled on the issues that they should have been getting grilled about all along. It is especially amusing watching Abbott struggling with the temptation to be his usual belligerent self, trying to be all softly-softly with these guys, woo them without insulting them ... and at the same time trying to keep his own party members from chasing the three and pressuring them.

The main thing is, we have a process to resolve the situation, it is progressing.

Sounds like it is working, but in situations like that don't you think it concentrates the power to the three independents? That seems counter intuitive to the whole process, I just don't know enough about it though.

In this situation, that's exactly what it's doing. Originally, the system of checks and balances was meant to prevent any one party or group from having too much power. I'm not sure that anyone ever envisioned a situation where the level of support (or lack of it) would be so evenly divided between the major parties.

For those in Australia, have just been reading a magazine put out by one of the radio stations. There's a segment put in by one of the of the comedy shows entitled "The Chaser's Top 5 Politician Cameos We Can't Get" (basically, they like to have politicians on their show and see how well developed their sense of humour is). No. 3 on the list is "Barnaby Joyce challenged to give a speech that makes sense to anyone besides Barnaby Joyce." :)

After 17 days, we have a PM and a government!

Phew. That was close.

The Sun rose with the coalition on 73, Labor on 74, three undecided.

Around noon, Katter announced he was supporting the coalition. 74 all.

Then Windsor, and then Oakeshott, very s-l-o-w-l-y announced that they would support Labor. 76-74.

The incumbent (Gillard) remains as Prime Minister with a minority in the lower house, with support in matters of supply (passing the budget) and motions of confidence from four of the five independents.

Labor also have a minority in the upper house, with Greens (mostly) holding the balance of power.

So, in effect, the "working class" city folk are the government, but they have to be nice to the bushies and the greenies; and the middle and wealthy classes make up the opposition.

There are mechanisms in our constitution for early elections if government becomes unworkable. Will this strange arrangement last a full three year term?

I'm really happy with this result, both for the immediate political arrangement and for the reinvigoration of the parliamentary process.

Zen's post today lead me to re-read the entire thread,
and then get into casi's 8/24 link to the sbs.com website.
It's a fascinating read for someone like me who has never followed Australian politics.
Been there once, but only as an in-and-out business trip.

I can't say I am really understanding yet it as much as I should.
The parliamentary system is still new to me, but I'll keep learning.
But it's been a happy morning in the rain peeking in on all this.

Thank you Aliantha, ZenGum, casimendocina, et al.

I don't think the public have paid this much attention to an election since Gough Whitlam (I am making this assertion with no back-up evidence whatsoever) although everyone I knew was on the edge of their seats last election to see if John Howard would finally get ousted or not. I, personally, would have liked to have seen Tony Abbott's implosion on receiving the news that he was not to be PM. I wonder if they'll start letting him speak without a script again.

Ya, Tony must be seething inside. He is carrying himself well, so far.

Yeah well, just wait till a couple of days into the next sitting of parliament!

Ali, can you say why Queensland went so against Labor? I hear the economy up there has been below par lately, is that it? Or were people ticked off about the Rudd dumping?

It was partly about Rudd, partly about the mining tax and partly because our labor Premier is a dingbat. In a nutshell anyway.

It's important to remember that before Labor sank their teeth in with Labor, Qld was a National's stronghold (although that was largely in part thanks to Joh's gerrymander), but even so we'd traditionally been a very conservative state ruled by rural decisions. Remember, Brisband was still considered to be a big country town until about 20 yrs ago.

I doubt Labor will win the next state election, particularly if they keep Spanna Bligh as their leader. She is such an idiot.

Was checking out the ABC website looking for an interview with a media guy from Afghanistan and found this. It's got a bit of everything including the election.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2...m?site=thedrum

Where is the part about this spring's expected locust plaque?

That's between the locusts and their dentist.

You see...the guys who were doing the locust survey that we met in Cradock pub 10 weeks ago still haven't made it back to the capital city to submit their report. They're still busy surveying locusts (i.e. Do you swarm often?).

Not only can we not settle an election, we can't settle the footy either.

Grand final of the Aussie Rules football, Collingwood Vs St Kilda, two old Melbourne teams. The last time they played a final It was St Kilda 74 - 73.

This time St Kilda came back from 24 points down around half time to edge in front near the end, only to have the match finish in a draw at 68 - 68.

Extra time? Not us.
Golden goal? bah!
Penalty kicks? for sooks.
Come back next weekend and play the whole game again? Brilliant!

Does everyone have to buy new tickets?

Bit of a shame for those who had scheduled their wedding to be AFTER the end of the football season and the grand final.

Wedding? Trivial... insignificant... we're talking about FOOTY! :lol2:

Big screens at the reception and everything is solved.

Media reports a fair bit of wedding rescheduling going on.

One news story reported that they thought the re-match would generate an extra $5 million for the economy within the hospitality industry (e.g. people going to pubs and buying drinks while watching the match)

So labor brings it's first vote in and loses.

What was the vote about?

Parliamentary reform.

What a joke. lol

Well, bugger me backwards with a bargepole.

About five months before the last election, Labor dumped Rudd and installed Gillard, because they were trailing badly in the polls. They drew the election and just barely negotiated a deal with parliament to form a government.

Despite having a minority in parliament, they have governed (IMHO) fairly well - the economy is okay, social conditions are mostly good, and they've brought through a lot of new legislation - disability insurance, education reform, etc. Nevertheless, there has been a persistent media campaign against them, because of party political BS going on with certain former leaders (and their henchmen) being destabilising. With such a tight parliament, Gillard could never sack or otherwise discipline her crew if they misbehaved.

Now, about few months before the next election, and trailing woefully in the polls, they have ... dumped Gillard and installed Rudd as party leader - although, given the minority in parliament, this does NOT automatically make Rudd Prime Minister again.

Most interesting.

Some people do have a way with words...

Reuters
Jason Scott
Jun 26, 2013

Gillard Demise Sown in Unforgiven Rudd Coup That Tarnished Trust