The Cellar - North Korea warns of war

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North Korea warns of war

Quote:

Tensions deepened Thursday on the Korean peninsula as South Korea accused North Korea of firing a torpedo that sank a naval warship, killing 46 sailors in the country's worst military disaster since the Korean War.

President Lee Myung-bak vowed "stern action" for the provocation following the release of long-awaited results from a multinational investigation into the March 26 sinking near the Koreas' tense maritime border. North Korea, reacting swiftly, called the results a fabrication, and warned that any retaliation would trigger war. It continued to deny involvement in the sinking of the warship Cheonan.

"If the (South Korean) enemies try to deal any retaliation or punishment, or if they try sanctions or a strike on us .... we will answer to this with all-out war," Col. Pak In Ho of North Korea's navy told broadcaster APTN in an exclusive interview in Pyongyang.

An international civilian-military investigation team said evidence overwhelmingly proves a North Korean submarine fired a homing torpedo that caused a massive underwater blast that tore the Cheonan apart. Fifty-eight sailors were rescued from the frigid Yellow Sea waters, but 46 perished.

Since the 1950-53 war on the Korean peninsula ended in a truce rather than a peace treaty, the two Koreas remain locked in a state of war and divided by the world's most heavily armed border.

The truce prevents Seoul from waging a unilateral military attack.

However, South Korea and the U.S., which has 28,500 troops on the peninsula, could hold joint military exercises in a show of force, said Daniel Pinkston, a Seoul-based analyst for the International Crisis Group think tank.

South Korean and U.S. officials also said they are considering a variety of options in response to the warship's sinking, ranging from U.N. Security Council action to additional U.S. penalties.

The exchange of war rhetoric raised tensions, but the isolated communist regime - already under international pressure to cease its nuclear weapons program - often warns of dire consequences against South Korea or Washington for any punitive steps against it. Its large but decrepit military would be no match for U.S. and Korean forces.

The impoverished country is already chafing from international sanctions tightened last year in the wake of widely condemned nuclear and missile tests. U.N. sanctions currently block funding to certain officials and companies, while North Korea is barred from exporting weapons and countries are authorized to inspect North Korean ships suspected of carrying illicit cargo.

South Korea "will take resolute countermeasures against North Korea and make it admit its wrongdoings through strong international cooperation," Lee said during a call with Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, the presidential office said. Lee convened an emergency meeting for Friday.

The White House called the sinking an unacceptable "act of aggression" that violates international law and the 1953 truce. Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama declared his support for South Korea, calling North Korea's actions "inexcusable."

China, North Korea's traditional ally, called the sinking of the naval ship "unfortunate" but stopped short of backing Seoul.

Pyongyang continued its steadfast denials of involvement in the sinking.

"Our Korean People's Army was not founded for the purpose of attacking others. We have no intention to strike others first," Col. Pak, the naval spokesman, told APTN in the North Korean capital. "So why should we attack a ship like the Cheonan which has no relation with us, no need to strike it and we have no significance in doing so."

North Korea's powerful National Defense Commission warned the South against provocative acts near their border, and urged the U.S. and Japan to "act with discretion," the state-run Korean Central News Agency said in a dispatch monitored in Seoul.

North Korea has waged a slew of attacks on South Korea since the 1950-53 fighting ended, including the 1987 downing of a South Korean airliner that killed all 115 people on board.

Pyongyang has never owned up to the attacks.

Link

It wouldn't surprise me if the NorKors did torpedo that Southern ship. However, they evidence is that the Southerners recovered most of the torpedo from inside the sunken ship.

Modern torpedoes detonate beneath the target vessel, creating a combination of shock waves and gas bubbles and stuff that force the ship to flex up and down in the middle which snaps the ship's spine and sinks it. Such a torpedo wouldn't be found inside the target ship. :eyebrow:

I suspect the answer to this :eyebrow: is that this applies to modern torpedoes, and we're talking about North Korea here.

I think they just want attention.

Can't they just join the cellar?

North Korea's only computer is currently being use by fearless leader to play Pong, when the electricity is working.

Quote:

President Obama ordered the U.S. military to work with South Korea to "ensure readiness" and prepare for future aggressions. "We endorse President Lee's demand that North Korea immediately apologize and punish those responsible for the attack and, most importantly, stop its belligerent and threatening behavior," the White House said.

Whats the point? Our military forces are spread so thin already.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZenGum (Post 657941)

However, they evidence is that the Southerners recovered most of the torpedo from inside the sunken ship.

Actually, it was

Quote:

a team of international investigators accused North Korea of torpedoing the Cheonan corvette in March, killing 46 sailors in one of the deadliest clashes between the two since the 1950-53 Korean War.

There isn't too much South Korea and the United States can do to North Korea without risking an all out war. SK says the are going sever almost all trade and restart some propaganda claims and the US is going to start patrolling SK waters alongside SK ships.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/25/wo...6YpT68fuD7UH7w

China seems to be playing the fence again. An interesting viewpoint as of why.

Quote:

China’s reluctance to censure the North is not rooted in affection for its policies. In private discussions, one American analyst said Sunday, Chinese officials express frustration with North Korea’s growing belligerence. But like their Washington counterparts, they say, they have no good option to deal with it.

Officials here worry that more pressure on North Korea will prove counterproductive, and some recent history backs them: after China joined other nations last year in protesting the missile launch, Mr. Kim reacted by pulling out of the six-nation talks, chaired by China, aimed at ending North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. This time, the North Korean government has threatened “all-out war” if it is punished for the Cheonan sinking.

“China remembers this lesson,” said Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University in Beijing. “I think this time our leaders are a little bit afraid of Kim Jong-il.”

China’s other worry is strategic: if relations with the North sour because its leaders fear China is aligning with the West against it, China could face an unstable and now nuclear-armed adversary on its border. And if international pressure leads to the collapse of the North’s government and eventually a unified, democratic Korea allied with the United States, China’s power in the region would be weakened.

A collapse could also unleash a flood of refugees across the Chinese border, a phenomenon China experienced in the mid-1990s when tens of thousands of North Koreans, if not more, fled widespread famine in their homeland.

So Beijing has tried to support North Korea while gently edging it toward economic reform and nuclear disarmament. To keep the North’s government afloat, China provides food, fuel and, by some estimates, 90 percent of North Korea’s industrial goods.

It also continues to invest there, positioning itself, some analysts say, for a post-Kim Jong-il period. In recent years, China has bought rights to several North Korean coal and mineral mines.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/24/wo...html?ref=world

Quote:

Originally Posted by piercehawkeye45 (Post 658111)

.... SK says the are going sever almost all trade ...

I heard or read that NK will interpret this as an act of war.

SK leaders are in a bad position right now. From what I've read, SK voters are getting sick of their leaders not standing up to Kim and if this administration does not do anything to NK in retaliation to the attack, then they may get voted out to someone that will. But on the other hand, NK has A LOT of missiles pointed at SK right now.

But, to be slightly optimistic, China seems to want to avoid a war right now so NK hopefully won't get any support from them if gets to that point.

Quote:

Originally Posted by piercehawkeye45 (Post 658115)

But, to be slightly optimistic, China seems to want to avoid a war right now so NK hopefully won't get any support from them if gets to that point.

China has as much say in NK as the US has say in Mexico.

But there is a larger question being asked. Who ordered the attack? Very good reasons to believe a power struggle is ongoing in N Korea. The extremists may be exercising power. Or the attack could have been a fringe element of the NK military doing it on their own.

Kim has a secret train ride to China. Presumably for talks. Maybe as deception for an ongoing power struggle – maybe he was never on that train. Maybe China wanted to have a talk with Kim about doing something stupid. Simply raises another important question - why was Kim in China?

Long before assuming Kim ordered this attack, first ask, what is its purpose? What makes more sense is some military subordinate screw up similar to the silly China Spy Plane fiasco. Where the Chinese military would not even tell Chinese party leadership that a mid air collision occurred.

If an attack was ordered by Kim, then what did he expect to gain from it? What is the larger strategy? Even crazy leaders have an agenda or objective. An attack ordered by Kim makes no sense. A struggle for control of the NK government - that makes more sense. Or using that as a tool to manipulate increased Chinese aid. Or simply a rogue submarine Captain. Or a training exercise where they accidently fired the torpedo. Or ... the only thing that makes no sense is Kim ordering an attack.

Where is the up side in that especially when Kim is at odds with his extremists over getting his people enough food from outside sources.

Kim has learned that by throwing a tantrum he can be given another lollipop.

I hope his next lollipop is a poisoned one.

He hopes yours is, too. He told me. :p:

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZenGum (Post 657941)

Apparently divers found bits of the torpedo at the wreck site.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/world/asi...0129703.stm?ls

Quote:

North Korea announced Tuesday a freeze in relations with South Korea and threatened military retaliation in response to alleged intrusions into its waters by the South Korean navy.

North Korea's Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea said it would "abrogate the agreement on non-aggression" amid heightened tensions on the divided peninsular over the sinking of a South Korean warship earlier this year.

An official South Korean report accused the Communist North of firing a torpedo at the ship, killing 46 sailors.

A North Korean military official accused the South of intruding into North Korean waters in the Yellow Sea from May 14 to 24, the Yonhap news agency reported.

"This is a deliberate provocation aimed to spark off another military conflict in the West Sea of Korea and thus push to a war phase the present north-south relations," the official said in a statement, according to Yonhap.

Link
This may all be posturing, but it is certainly headed in the wrong direction.

The biggest problem with the North Korea situation is that the North can literally level the entire city of Seoul within 20-30 minutes. They have THAT MUCH artillery pointed at it - and that ISN'T counting the missiles. If Kim decides he's in danger, or wants to start a war (with the Sultanistic government structure, it's really ALL about what Kim says), Seoul is just GONE. North Korea would get it's ass kicked - China wouldn't come to their support, I think, if they could absolutely say Kim started it. China would definitely try to retain its political power on the peninsula, but would be unlikely to send combat troops to fight the U.S. and South Korea if Kim were to unilaterally attack. So basically what it comes down to is, if Kim is REALLY trying to start something here, we can't make the first military move, or China will get involved - but if China can be persuaded or convinced to withdraw its support of the North, in exchange for continued political power in the area, Kim would really be out of luck - at the cost of, basically, the entire population of Seoul.

... and the US could wipe the entire country off the map in seconds. :yelsick:

Quote:

Originally Posted by classicman (Post 658364)

... and the US could wipe the entire country off the map in seconds. :yelsick:

Without China retaliating? No. That is exactly how NOT to avoid WWIII over this.

There will be retaliation no matter what. I really don't think that is avoidable.

I think you'd change your mind if your Momma was living there.

Sorry spexxie it wouldn't change my mind one iota.

Quote:

Originally Posted by tw (Post 658226)

But there is a larger question being asked. Who ordered the attack? Very good reasons to believe a power struggle is ongoing in N Korea. The extremists may be exercising power. Or the attack could have been a fringe element of the NK military doing it on their own.

Yes, I've heard that theory as well. From what I know, the two more probable theories are NK retaliating against SK for an event last year when SK ships attacked a NK vessel for crossing into SK waters. NK denies they crossed but I doubt anyone outside of NK believe them.

The second theory I've heard is that a rouge group of soldiers decided to escalate the conflict and attacked SK on their own. Kim obviously could not allow people to think he doesn't have complete control so he would never admit it.

Unfortunately, we have very little intelligence about NK so we probably will not know for some time, if ever.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheMercenary

Apparently divers found bits of the torpedo at the wreck site.

Every site I've read states that there is almost no doubt that NK torpedoed the SK ship. I think there were investigators from Canada, Sweden (a neutral country), and some other place and they all said NK did it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ibram

Without China retaliating? No. That is exactly how NOT to avoid WWIII over this.

I know China supports NK because they have interests in the region but do you really think they will escalate to that level over NK? If I remember correctly, you live in China (?), so you probably have better insight with this issue but I don't think China's interests in NK are worth what they lose over a world war, even a proxy war.

A nuclear or massive-scale-conventional assault on North Korea would definitely spark Chinese retaliation, to save face if nothing else. China would feel the need to ensure its interests on the peninsula are kept safe - any solution to the North Korea problem would require Chinese support.

Think of it as, North Korea is China's unruly little brother. China wouldn't necessarily mind someone helping them take care of the rowdy little bugger, as long as they didn't, you know, pound him into oblivion. Kim is embarrassing the Chinese government by throwing his tantrums, but they don't just want him - or, rather, their influence over the region - to just disappear.

China is the biggest player in the region, and ANY solution to the NK problem would need their full support, and to ensure their influence and interests are upheld.

ETA: also, would the U.S.'s interests in Japan or Taiwan or Canada be worth the cost of a war to defend them? Probably not, logically speaking, but treaties and a sense of duty to our friends mean that we would do so anyway. Likewise, China would come to North Korea's aid if they were not reassured that their interests would be looked out for.

ETA 2: Besides, if you were China and detected an ICBM launch towards you, you'd probably shoot first and ask questions later, too.

Quote:

Originally Posted by classicman (Post 658379)

Sorry spexxie it wouldn't change my mind one iota.

You heartless bastard! I'm telling your mom what you said.:p:

Seriously, you'd really sacrifice your own mother just to start a war with NK?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ibram (Post 658384)

China is the biggest player in the region, and ANY solution to the NK problem would need their full support, and to ensure their influence and interests are upheld.

Which explains why Hilary Clinton is apparently doing shuttle diplomacy. And it is making the Chinese leadership suddenly take note.

BBC News reports a rather interesting observation. China is completely confused by this entire issue. Not that it has attracted so much attention - far more than China apparently expected. China apparently cannot figure out why N Korea did this.

It sounds so much like what happened during the silly Spy Plane incident. Chinese leadership was the last to learn what had happened. Was completely blindsided by the turmoil and rumblings of war. But this is a different Chinese leadership. According to the BBC, Chinese are stalling for time until they can figure out what this is all about.

This is part of a long process of China coming to grips with its responsibilities to the world. Normally China would avoid the entire issue because they see no profit in it. But the issue has been forced upon them. More reasons for their confusion.

They better get used to it.
"How dare China police the world!!" "Why isn't China policing the world?!?" "How could they let this happen?" "When are they gonna fix it?!"

Suckers.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spexxvet (Post 658633)

Seriously, you'd really sacrifice your own mother just to start a war with NK?

No, but we would easily sacrifice yours....