Bin Laden Said Wounded by Shrapnel, Now Recovered
 

It looks like UBL was wounded by shrapnel in that attack on the Tora Bora caves, but has now recovered.

http://news.excite.com/article/id/45...9|reuters.html

I wouldn't be surprised if this brings new criticism of our military strategy in this war. The locals over there were saying that we relied heavily on letting the northern alliance and others do too much of the ground fighting, instead of sending in a well-organized infantry force to flush out UBL and his other baddies. And that a result of this technique was that many of them escaped.

From what I've seen, that doesn't look like it's too far off the mark. It seems like we may be too scared to put Americans at risk to get the job done. Sure, if we begin losing lots of our guys, public support will wane somewhat.. but what's the point of a war if we're not gonna take care of business?

Re: Bin Laden Said Wounded by Shrapnel, Now Recovered
 

Opinions as to what hapened to bin Laden are a dime a dozen. Is there some reason why this one deserves more credibility than any of the others?

Re: Re: Bin Laden Said Wounded by Shrapnel, Now Recovered
 

"Osama bin Laden is alive and in good health after being wounded in an attack on his base in Afghanistan in December, an Arab journalist with close ties to the Saudi-born militant's associates said Monday."

Now, true, that's not the world's most reliable source, but I see no reason to doubt it. I could see if they said he were OK, and he wasn't.

But I doubt they'd say that he was "wounded by shrapnel" if that didn't really happen. And that would mean he was pretty close to the fighting, but we didn't seal off all their escape routes. And that means we lost the ground fight, if our objective was to prevent escape, which I believe it was.

Of course, he might really be dead, and they're saying this to cover that up. But it also seems like some rather high-ranking sources in the past week or so have said there's credible evidence that he's alive and in the Pakistan border region.

Re: Bin Laden Said Wounded by Shrapnel, Now Recovered
 

Distract the American public from the ineptness of its current leadership and the means by which it gained that power...

Re: Re: Re: Bin Laden Said Wounded by Shrapnel, Now Recovered
 

You mean like the head of German intelligence?

I don't think anybody who's talking knows, and those who really know aren't saying. If all it took to be authoritiative was to be "high-ranking", we could ask Dubya. :-)

They "wounded in the shoulder by shrapnel" is plausible given how he did not move his right arm at all in the last relased video that could be convincingly placed in time. I wonder what he's been doing for dialysis lately, if he is alive. Probably had some friends ship him another machien.

funny how a bunch of non-facts strung together can become a new non-fact. especially if it's brought to us by A Reliable Source®

Re: Re: Re: Bin Laden Said Wounded by Shrapnel, Now Recovered
 

With so much al Qaeda trapped in Tora Bora and with so much ability to strike on moments notice from the sky, it would appear, at first glance that US Central Command made a gross tactical error in not committing the Marine Expeditionary Force to Tora Bora. Literally dispatching platoons to observation posts in all valleys into the region could have made it difficult for bin Laden, et al to escape to Pakistan. Observers could have quickly obtained air attacks and, if necessary, got immediate transport out of hot regions.

But the US was short of troops. We had stalled sending in the Army or addtional Marines from CA. Maybe that too was a mistake. Apparently Central Command wanted to save the Marines for a backup force. That meant Tora Bora was porous.

However getting into Pakistan was not easy either. The Pakistanis had assembled massive troop formations that are rumored to have trapped al Qaeda in the Afganistan side of the border. It may have been a beautiful flanking maneuver by al Qaeda. Some quick terrorism in Kashmir forced Pakistan to move most of their military to the Indian border. That opened the border for al Qaeda (and probably bin Laden) to escape to either cities or tribal regions of Pakistan.

Even the Japanese are involved in a search. They are supplying the British navy off the Pakistan coast where so far tens of thousands of ships and boats have been inspected for al Qaeda suspects. First two suspects were apprehended yesterday after a one hour high speed chase.

Where is he? Who knows. In hindsight, the US did error in Tora Bora. But then at the time, their overly conservative approach was typical of a general, Tommy Franks, who also commands too far away from FL and from George Jr's TX ranch (where he was at the time).

So at what point do a bunch of "non-facts" become something that maybe people should pay attention to?

In hindsight of 9/11, there were a bunch of "non-facts" that might have tipped us off as to what was going to happen. Sure, it's easy to look back now and say we should have seen this or that, but my point is that just because something isn't proven and verified and coming out of the the president's or some general's mouth doesn't mean it's <I>not</I> true.

During the Tora Bora battle, there were several officers from the northern alliance stating the same thing -- that lots of al Qaeda got away because we didn't have enough troops on the ground. Is that a "non-fact", or is that A Reliable Source? What is your basis for making such a determination?

Do you believe everything the president says, or are those non-facts too? Or does it take something being caught on the 11 o'clock news before you'll believe it?

"Think about [the wonders of Photoshop] every time you see a photo in the straight media....I don't know if that [Elian in the closet facing a gun] photo is real. I don't even know if ELIAN GONZALEZ is real, for that matter."
-- Jello Biafra, "Become the Media"

All the stuff I've heard cited along those lines were facts--actual intelligence take--rather than non-facts. There's a difference between intel and rumors, and I'm sure as a military guy you appreciate that.
But this is a Arab journalist quoting an unnamed source. How much credibility is that worth?

Just because plausible detail is attached doesn't make it in the least more credible, because festooning your story with plausible detail is one of the first lessons when constructing disinformation. Just like those urban legends where the business traveller wakes up in an ice-filled bathtub minus a kidney, sprinkling a lie with known truths causes some of their credibility to rub off on the lie inside.
It sounds like what you'd expect to hear from a soldier who was frustrated that some of the enemy he was sent to kill got away.

just cos someone says it's so, and it sounds plausible, doesn't validate it.

for example: dozens of al qaeda have snuck into the US in container ships, prepared to attack US targets. true or false? according to sources®, it's true.

http://www.debka.com/LADEN/body_laden.html

they also claimed in May that OBL was in Kashmir. plausible, but unverifiable. and not "credible" by any means.

these same sources® claimed back in November that Russia was invading Afghanistan from the north with 100s of thousands of troops. dont recall hearing any more bout that one.


i think that i shall come out with a press release stating that OBL was injured at tora bora, and subsequently died of his injuries. i will back this up with the fact that nobody has seen or heard of him since then. no tv, nothing. for a man that obsessed with CNN and Al Jazeera, that's proof enough for me, the hack journalist. i'll add in a few uncorroborated reports of tall guys being seen in coffins, and that should be good enough. :)

Re: Re: Re: Re: Bin Laden Said Wounded by Shrapnel, Now Recovered
 

He has friends at Baxter in NJ who shipped him a portable peritoneal dialysis machine and supplies. They made a rudimentary peritoneal catheter for him out in the desert. :)

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Bin Laden Said Wounded by Shrapnel, Now Recovered
 

I wonder if it makes his bathroom lights strobe?

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Bin Laden Said Wounded by Shrapnel, Now Recovered
 

All the lights in the town nearby. ;)

So.... all we have to do is watch for the strobe! Somebody notify NSA! (Oh, I forgot... we've already hit most of the keywords in this thread, they're already reading it)

As long as they don't accidentally bomb a desert rave...

I didn't say it was "validated", I said a lot of what we've been hearing from several different places meshes into a specific sort of picture. It could all be completely way off base. My original point was that word surfacing that he was wounded might have been used as fresh criticism for the military campaign, which doesn't seem to have happened.
I know you think your little ® is rather witty, but those sources® are some no-name internet rag. The sources® I quoted is Reuters, which is one of the most respected news reporting organizations in the country. Yes, they in turn got it from much less reliable sources.

So let me try to phrase my original point a little more clearly. Several sources -- the head of German intelligence, a general from the northern alliance who was on the ground commanding troops, and an Arab journalist who has close ties with some members of Al Qaeda -- all give information that points to the same result.

Yes, they could all be pulling it out of their asses, and especially the last one might be trying to spread misinformation, or may be unwittingly someone else's vessel for spreading misinformation. But as Maggie pointed out, OBL being wounded in the shoulder is rather plausible, given that his arm appeared to be wounded in his last cameo appearance.

So all of this paints a picture where our military might have goofed in their assessment of the situation. I'm not saying that's how it is, or even that I believe it, just that I wouldn't be surprised if some of Bush's opponents used it for criticism. And if it <I>is</I> true that we were over-reliant on air support, then we need to change our approach to further similar situations.

True, bad example on my part. I'm just gonna drop it there because we're kinda getting away from what I intended. As a military guy, I was hoping for more of a discussion on pounding the shit out of stuff from the sky vs. sending in the boys on the ground. :)
The Arab jounalist said that a) OBL is alive; he was wounded by shrapnel in the shoulder but recovered, and b) that he was living somewhere near the Pakistani border.

a) I believe has a decent amount of credibility because, like you said, that arm appeared wounded in the video. And when we received the video, if I'm not mistaken, our intelligence placed it somewhere in the end-of-December timeframe. So OBL being wounded in the shoulder, then escaping Tora Bora and recovering, seems entirely believable to me. Again, not a fact or definite by any means, just pretty believable.

b) of course is much more foggy, and I will admit that no one who is talking has any sort of idea where he is. Again, I'm gonna drop that one.

nope, but it seems to have entertained you, so it Served Its Purpose®.

and debka's far from a no name internet rag. on the middle east front, debka's the vinegar to al jazeera's oil. i put no more faith in a story carried by reuters than i do in a story carried by the asia times or dawn or debka or any other foreign source. but YMMV.

as for your point, i agree, it seems likely, but OBL might as well be Waldo now. i don't see the significance of that particular article over any other scenario of where he is.

The topic of "responsible" sources has come up before. And just like we all have different opinions on things, we probably all have different opinions on what sources are good or not. I'd say that most news organizations have a bit of good and bad in them. I think there are some that ARE better than others (e.g. Anyone that takes the Philadelphia Daily News very seriously is in trouble, IMO), but in the end, it's really a judgement call on your own part.

the other side of the coin, from our friends at AP

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmp...en_3&printer=1

FBI Boss Thinks bin Laden is Dead
Wed Jul 17, 5:23 PM ET
By CHRISTOPHER NEWTON, Associated Press Writer

FBI counterterrorism chief Dale Watson said Wednesday that he believes Osama bin Laden ( news - web sites) is dead — the first time a senior U.S. law enforcement official publicly has given an opinion on the al-Qaida leader's status.

Watson quickly emphasized that he had no evidence that the suspected mastermind of the Sept. 11 attacks was dead. But his comments, at a conference of local law enforcement officials from across the country, suggest the FBI has no direct intelligence that proves bin Laden is alive.

"Is (bin Laden) alive or is he dead?" Watson said. "I am not really sure of the answer ... I personally think he is probably not with us anymore but I have no evidence to support that."

Watson also said bin Laden's al-Qaida network of terrorist training camps has been dismantled, but "there is no question in my mind ... we will be attacked again."

The terrorist "fleas" infesting the country "want to kill you," Watson said. "They could be in your neighborhood."

He said the government is committed to sharing information with the public when the FBI has specific information of a terrorist threat.

Watson, who rarely makes public appearances, is the top official for counterterrorism and counterintelligence in the FBI. He did not elaborate on his comments on bin Laden and rushed away from reporters after he spoke.

Some U.S. and Justice Department officials said they were surprised by Watson's comments. They said the Bush administration's position remains that bin Laden's whereabouts and status are unknown. FBI officials declined comment.

Watson joined the FBI as a special agent in 1978. In June, 1996 he joined the CIA for several months, working as a deputy to the head of the intelligence agency's counterterrorism center. He returned to the FBI in January 1997 to take charge of international terrorism affairs and in 1999 he was named director of the agency's Counterterrorism Division.

Since December, reports of bin Laden's well-being have been sporadic and from different sources.

This month, a London-based Arabic newspaper said bin Laden was wounded in a U.S. bombing raid in Afghanistan last year but was in good health.

There was no way to verify the report in London-based Al-Quds Al-Arabi. U.S. officials say they have no evidence bin Laden was wounded in the U.S. bombing of al-Qaida hide-outs in Tora Bora, Afghanistan, late last year, but acknowledge it is a possibility.

The newspaper's editor said in a telephone interview with The Associated Press that bin Laden had surgery to remove shrapnel from his left shoulder.

On Saturday, the head of Germany's Federal Intelligence Service was quoted as saying bin Laden was alive and hiding along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.

Is this news? This is the quote that got this story onto the wire. But it means next to nothing. This was in response to a question...that real information here is "I am not sure of the answer." It certainly doesn't justiy the headline it got.

All it says is that the journalist saw the same video that we did, and knows that we saw it. He made sure that the verifiable parts of his story jived with what *is* known. He's have to be a real dimwit to write a story that *contradicted* what is known. The *un*verifiable part of his story must still stand or fall on it's own merits.