The Cellar - Second Chances

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Quote:

Originally Posted by piercehawkeye45 (Post 367187)

Yesman - here is the link

http://cellar.org/showpost.php?p=364017&postcount=33

Thank you.

Nobody should mistake Iran for anything approaching a democracy

For an example of the mullahs and only the mullahs ruling in Iran, and keeping Iran from any semblance of being a democracy, here's something David Frum quotes:

Quote:

A few weeks ago, the veteran Newsweek reporter Michael Hirsh wrote a series of online diary entries from Iran that convincingly argued for American engagement with Tehran. Hirsh found Iran to be less repressive than one might expect, reporting that women find stylish ways around the regime’s dress code, the recent arrests of four Iranian-American scholars “scarcely provoke much discussion,” and the crackdown on dissent “is most often accomplished in subtle rather than savage ways.” Hirsh’s entry for June 20th called Iran “a country that supposedly puts dissenters in jail.” Even a cleric in Qom took Hirsh to task for not being critical enough.

Meanwhile, on July 9th, fifteen Iranian students and the mother of another were beaten and jailed after demonstrating in commemoration of an assault on student activists in 1999.

On July 10th, the leader of an independent trade union, who spent most of last year in prison, was abducted from a Tehran bus.

On July 11th, the Iranian judiciary banned a moderate news agency, just a few days after shutting down a newspaper that had resumed publication only two months earlier, following a seven-year ban.

In the spring, a hundred and fifty thousand Iranians were briefly detained for wearing clothes or hairstyles deemed un-Islamic. According to the Christian Science Monitor, “Iranian news organizations have been instructed not to report negative news regarding social unrest, gas rationing in the world’s fourth-largest oil exporter, the nuclear program, or the impact of U.N. sanctions on Iran.” Recently, Iran has lifted a moratorium on stoning, and has ramped up the number of executions of adulterers, homosexuals, and minors. Westerners in Iran report that Iranians no longer can accept invitations to cultural exchanges, overseas conferences, or social events at which Western diplomats will be present. Those who do are seen by the state as collaborating with the enemy.

This new crackdown by the regime is, Iran experts say, as severe as any in two decades. Women’s-rights activists, students, trade unionists, journalists, and those with connections to the West are under assault by the full extent of the state’s repressive apparatus—the judiciary, the Revolutionary Guards, the Basij militia. Torture of the growing number of political prisoners is routine.

Why did a journalist as experienced as Michael Hirsh not notice? Because, justifiably arguing for dialogue and against fantasies of easy regime change, he wants to be able to say that things are not as bad as you think in Iran. The truth is, things are worse than you think for any Iranian who tries to exercise minimal political rights. Just as the neoconservatives concocted a simple case on Iraq and, now, Iran—claiming that the locals would welcome regime change from outside—people like Hirsh want to make a simple case, too. It’s a great temptation to say that, because X is true, Y, which seems to point in a different direction from X, must be false. We all want total vindication. But in politics there is no total vindication, on Iran or anything else. The regime there is brutal, and we should talk to it.

Scroll down about a third of the way.

I don't think anyone is saying Iran has a nice regime. Just like Iraq, the people have to decide if they want a change, a military action only concentrates their anger on us rather than the mullahs. David "Axis of Evil" Frum is hardly the guy to go to for unbiased commentary. We need to pull his green card.

Excerpt from an interview with Michael Yon (7-12-07)

HH: Now yesterday, Harry Reid said on the floor of the Senate that the surge has failed. Do you think there’s any factual basis for making that assertion, Michael Yon, from what you’ve seen in Iraq over the last many months?

MY: He’s wrong, he’s wrong. It has absolutely not failed, and in fact, I’m finally willing to say it in public. I feel like it’s starting to succeed. And you know, I’m kind of stretching a little bit, because we haven’t gone too far into it, but I can see it from my travels around, for instance, in Anbar and out here in Diyala Province as well. Baghdad’s still very problematic. But there’s other areas where you can clearly see that there is a positive effect. And the first and foremost thing we have to do is knock down al Qaeda. And with them alienating so many Iraqis, I mean, they’re almost doing it for us. I mean, yeah, it takes military might to finally like wipe them out of Baquba, but it’s working. I mean, I sense that the surge is working. Reid is just wrong.

I posted this in another thread, but I think it really belongs here...

A War We Just Might Win
By MICHAEL E. O’HANLON and KENNETH M. POLLACK
Published: July 30, 2007

I'm sure the grunts were tired of chasing ghosts with no discernible progress, with no strategy, plan or goal.

Yon is a blogger, beholding to nobody except the people that read his blog and contribute to his expenses.
He understands the military and the internal politics that make it tick... as well as the necessity of the media for winning hearts and minds. Not only here but more importantly in the middle East.
With his background and contacts, he is is a perfect position to be a shill for the pentagon and/or the administration.

That said, I trust his judgment and his reporting.

Having followed his reports for a couple years, I'm absolutely convinced he is reporting the true situation as honestly as he can. From the git go, he has pointed out the successes and failures of our policies and actions, in Afghanistan and Iraq.
He was quick to say we were leaving Afghanistan half finished, and Iraq had devolved to civil war. He did so without walking away in disgust, but looked for signs the leadership was getting a clue while continuing to report on the difficult job the US and Brit units were doing. He also reports on the various tribes, their peculiarities, and there relations with other tribes and our troops.
I've yet to see a tiny speck of him having any agenda beyond telling the truth.

Quote:

Originally Posted by xoxoxoBruce (Post 369631)

That said, I trust his judgment and his reporting.

I agree with alll of that, Bruce. But Yon is just one person. His reports are limited to what he is able to see himself. I won't say his reporting is purely anecdotal, because he does talk to a lot of people, but I'd feel much better if there were 100 Yons based all over Iraq, reporting what they see. Then I'd trust the big picture better.

The big picture to me is:

1. The Administration says things aren't that bad. I wish I could believe them, but they have lied so often in the past, their words have no value.

2. The media keeps reporting on all the violence, various car bombs, and the civil war, etc. etc. I see no progress in the war there.

3. Yon says things might not be so bad. They are moving very slowly in the right direction. I trust Yon, but I don't trust that he knows it all.

If the war is winnable (for a reasonable cost in blood and money,) then we should stay. We created this mess, so we should fix it. But if we are not making progress, then we should cut our losses and leave. I've said a couple times that I don't see any progress. Since then, Dwellars have posted a couple of stories and Yon blogs that hint at progress. I hope it's true, but I remain unconvinced. The stories coming out if Iraq are overwhelmingly negative.

You're right in there should be at least 100 Yons to cover the country, although he does get around a lot, traveling with the top non-com in the army.

I wonder if the reporting on all the violence, various car bombs, and the civil war, is mostly second hand reports, from deep in the Green Zone. Do they really know what's happening in the hinterlands? The old, build a thousand bridges and one falls down, which one makes the papers, routine.

I'm certainly not saying there isn't a shitload of trouble over there, or that there is a way to stabilize the country... or that I could personally do anything if there is. I'm just looking for reliable sources of information on what's happening and I believe Yon to be one.

Of course there is no reliable source on the big picture, except tw... he told me so.

Quote:

Originally Posted by xoxoxoBruce (Post 369656)

Of course there is no reliable source on the big picture, except tw... he told me so.

FACT: 85% of mental midgets confuse their emotions with reality. . . . . . . . . . . . . . I can't do it as good as glatt.

Its not your fault Flint, 85% of all problems are directly traceable to top management.

What is considered winning the war in Iraq?

The middle east is like a fight between a bunch of scrags.

You watch from the outside and you feel like you should do something, but you know if you get drawn in, you're only going to be one of the scrags.

I don't understand why the people who wield power and influence don't see that.

Quote:

Originally Posted by piercehawkeye45 (Post 369807)

What is considered winning the war in Iraq?

Removing top management...