The Cellar

The Cellar (http://cellar.org/index.php)
-   Health (http://cellar.org/forumdisplay.php?f=33)
-   -   Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) (http://cellar.org/showthread.php?t=34936)

sexobon 03-25-2020 08:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clodfobble (Post 1049311)
… I'm expecting to be disappointed.

Grab a stack of their printed weekly flyers. Those will work in a pinch and leave you with a free tattoo.

Carruthers 03-25-2020 08:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by monster (Post 1049305)
Prince Charles tested positive

I have both of his parents on my death pool list. :/

HRH is actually suffering from Crownavirus.

I thought that I should make that clear. ;)

monster 03-25-2020 11:50 AM

Because he's never going to wear it?

BigV 03-25-2020 12:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by monster (Post 1049305)
Prince Charles tested positive

I have both of his parents on my death pool list. :/

My Mom is 84. Twil's Mom is 93. Both live in physically separate structures, in different cities, to be clear. My Mom is ok, as of today. I have gotten calls from the staff there throughout the changing events. First it was lockdown, then a resident was showing symptoms, then yesterday a call saying the test results have been returned and show negative. No change in lockdown, stay in your room status, meals delivered, etc. Twil's Mom is thriving, apparently all she needed all along was just regular room service.

Flint 03-25-2020 01:22 PM

Layoffs at my hospital. I asked my manager, "I thought we were sitting on a mountain of cash?" (we've been stockpiling capital to build a new facility) ... Apparently we had our money INVESTED IN THE STOCK MARKET.

Layoffs at a HOSPITAL because of the ƒucking stock market.

This feels more and more like a "perfect storm" every day.

Undertoad 03-25-2020 04:38 PM

Yes. Without drifting too far away from topic, the best description I've heard is:

Our systems are built to maximize efficiency... at the price of becoming fragile.

People laugh at squirrels after learning how many acorns they bury. But they aren't burying enough to survive this winter. Evolution has made them store enough to survive the very WORST winter.

xoxoxoBruce 03-25-2020 04:55 PM

Damn, it was hard enough finding a place to bury my nuts before the Kung Flu screwed the pooch. :rolleyes:

sexobon 03-25-2020 05:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Flint (Post 1049339)
… Layoffs at a HOSPITAL because of the ƒucking stock market.

This feels more and more like a "perfect storm" every day.

Coronavirus Disease AND Chicken Little Syndrome. A double whammy!

Griff 03-26-2020 06:32 AM

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-...rus-in-the-u-s

NPR = no paywall

sexobon 03-26-2020 07:40 AM

If you die with coronavirus, stay dead.

Quote:

Hospitals consider universal do-not-resuscitate orders for coronavirus patients

Hospitals on the front lines of the pandemic are engaged in a heated private debate over a calculation few have encountered in their lifetimes — how to weigh the “save at all costs” approach to resuscitating a dying patient against the real danger of exposing doctors and nurses to the contagion of coronavirus.

The conversations are driven by the realization that the risk to staff amid dwindling stores of protective equipment — such as masks, gowns and gloves — may be too great to justify the conventional response when a patient “codes,” and their heart or breathing stops.

Northwestern Memorial Hospital in Chicago has been discussing a do-not-resuscitate policy for infected patients, regardless of the wishes of the patient or their family members — a wrenching decision to prioritize the lives of the many over the one. …

… Officials at George Washington University Hospital in the District say they have had similar conversations, …

… University of Washington Medical Center in Seattle, one of the country’s major hot spots for infections, is dealing with the problem by severely limiting the number of responders to a contagious patient in cardiac or respiratory arrest.

Several large hospital systems — Atrium Health in the Carolinas, Geisinger in Pennsylvania and regional Kaiser Permanente networks — are looking at guidelines that would allow doctors to override the wishes of the coronavirus patient or family members on a case-by-case basis ...

sexobon 03-26-2020 08:43 AM

:lol:

They're supposed to already have "what if" contingency plans for a biological attack; but, they're just now getting around to doing a feasibility study:

Quote:

Army seeks retired medical personnel to rejoin service to combat the coronavirus

The Army has launched an effort to see whether retired doctors, nurses and medics may be willing to be recalled to military service, citing the “extraordinary challenges” that the coronavirus pandemic has created.

An Army general said in a message to eligible veterans that the Army is turning to “trusted professionals capable of operating under constantly changing conditions” and “reaching out to gauge the interest” of those who qualify. The solicitation, obtained by The Washington Post, applies to both retired officers and enlisted soldiers. ...

Griff 03-26-2020 08:46 AM

40,000 retired NY health professionals have volunteered to help. Amazing and a little scary when you thin about Whois likely to end up on a ventilator.

sexobon 03-26-2020 08:59 AM

Rolin' rollin' rollin'
Keep them retirees rollin'
Volunteers

Don't try to understand them
Just rope, throw and brand 'em
Soon they'll be kneeling high and wide

Move 'em out head 'em up get 'em up
Move 'em out head 'em up get 'em up
Free labor!
.
.
.
ETA: Of course, the Army promises they won't interfere with civilian volunteer resourcing. :rolleyes:

sexobon 03-27-2020 09:54 AM

Another study on origin.

Quote:

Sorry, conspiracy theorists. Study concludes COVID-19 'is not a laboratory construct'

… An analysis of the evidence, according to the findings first published in the scientific journal Nature Medicine, shows that the novel coronavirus "is not a laboratory construct or a purposefully manipulated virus," with the researchers concluding "we do not believe that any type of laboratory-based scenario is plausible."

"There’s a lot of speculation and conspiracy theories that went to a pretty high level," Dr. Robert Garry, a professor at the Tulane University School of Medicine and one of the authors of the study, told ABC News, "so we felt it was important to get a team together to examine evidence of this new coronavirus to determine what we could about the origin."

Dr. Francis Collins, the director of the National Institutes of Health, supported the study’s findings, writing on his blog, "This study leaves little room to refute a natural origin for COVID-19."

Researchers concluded that the novel coronavirus is not a human creation because it does not share any "previously used virus backbone." It likely arose, the study said, from a recombination of a virus found in bats and another virus, possibly originating from pangolins, otherwise known as scaly anteaters.

COVID-19 is 96% identical to a coronavirus found in bats, researchers said, but with a certain variation that could explain what has made it so infectious.

"We know from the study of other coronaviruses that they’re able to acquire this [variation] and they can then become more pathogenic," …

… The mutation in surface proteins, according to Garry, could have triggered the outbreak of the pandemic, but it’s also possible that a less severe version of the illness was circulating through the population for years, perhaps even decades, before escalating to this point.

"We don’t know if those mutations were picked up more recently or a long time ago," Garry told ABC News. "It’s impossible to say if it actually was a mutation that triggered the pandemic, but either way, it would have been a naturally occurring process."

And while many believe the virus originated at a fish market in Wuhan, China, Garry said that it is also a misconception.

"Our analyses, and others too, point to an earlier origin than that," Garry said. "There were definitely cases there, but that wasn’t the origin of the virus."

sexobon 03-27-2020 03:28 PM

Iran gave us another slap in the face by outdoing our dead guy, who consumed chloroquine phosphate from fish tank cleaner, and having over 300 of their people kill themselves by consuming methanol:

Quote:

Hundreds dead in Iran after consuming methanol thinking it was coronavirus protection

More than 300 people have died and a further 1,000 have fallen ill in Iran after consuming methanol in the belief that it will protect them against the coronavirus, according to local media. ...

BigV 03-27-2020 03:56 PM

do those count as COVID-19 deaths or merely Darwin Awardees?

sexobon 03-27-2020 04:21 PM

They volunteered for those trials.

They're NATIONAL HEROES!

xoxoxoBruce 03-27-2020 11:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigV (Post 1049515)
do those count as COVID-19 deaths or merely Darwin Awardees?

Same category or different as the guy who dies of a heart attack because the hospitals are overwhelmed?

sexobon 03-28-2020 07:48 AM

If the guy who dies of a heart attack, because the hospitals are overwhelmed, leaves his toilet paper to the healthcare workers... he's a NATIONAL HERO!

sexobon 03-28-2020 11:02 AM

And now for something completely different...
 
Here’s why social distancing makes you constipated—and how to get your poop moving again

Read it, if you dare.

BigV 03-28-2020 11:45 AM

This is quite good. A doctor in NY city who is treating the COVID-19 patients exclusively due to the volume of cases. It's a long video, I watched it at 1.25x speed with the captions on. Five stars *****



TL;DR

1 -- Hand hygiene. Wash your hands, sanitize your hands when you can't wash your hands.

2 -- Stop touching your face.

3 -- Wear a mask or a bandanna to help you become aware of your hands moving to your face. It does not need to be a medical mask. The mask will not prevent the disease, it helps you stop carrying the disease from your hands to your face.

4 -- Maintain social distancing

***

After these points, he discusses in detail a number of questions from the other members of his video meeting. HIGHLY RECOMMENDED.

Clodfobble 03-28-2020 12:49 PM

More evidence that the Chinese death toll has been far higher than admitted:

http://shanghaiist.com/2020/03/27/ur...mpression=true

Griff 03-28-2020 01:06 PM

Urn numbers would seem to be a good indicator.

glatt 03-28-2020 01:12 PM

Urns should be fairly reliable for tracking deaths.

I wonder if anyone died of other causes during that time period. I wonder how many urns the funeral homes normally go through.

Griff 03-28-2020 01:18 PM

When hospitals are over-whelmed folks start dying of things the shouldn't...

Undertoad 03-28-2020 01:19 PM

Off topic again, but I always hate to see a picture of a crematorium with smoke rising in the background.

Griff 03-28-2020 01:25 PM

Ricky Gervais did a bit...

sexobon 03-28-2020 05:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigV (Post 1049608)
… 3 -- Wear a mask or a bandanna to help you become aware of your hands moving to your face. It does not need to be a medical mask. The mask will not prevent the disease, it helps you stop carrying the disease from your hands to your face.

This needs clarification:

Bandanas and non-medical masks won't prevent the disease. Medical masks like the N95 most certainly can prevent airborne transmission to the respiratory route of infection. That's why healthcare workers wear them. Droplets from a close proximity cough or sneeze are quite hazardous; but, healthcare workers can't always avoid them even though droplets settle out of the air within a few seconds. The probability of non-healthcare workers being coughed or sneezed on by infectious contacts is lower; but, that doesn't change the efficacy of wearing medical masks if it happens.

In addition to droplets, aerosolized viruses that can hang in the air for extended periods can be stopped by wearing medical masks. The risk there; however, is thought to be low in any setting.

Even with medical masks, disease prevention is only as effective as one's proficiency with all of the recommended infection control techniques combined. It is for this reason that most non-healthcare people will not benefit significantly from having medical masks.

I used to teach aseptic technique and grade students on their application of it. It's amazing how many ways there are to break asepsis and cross contaminate things in the work area without ever realizing that you've done it. I've had students swear on a stack of bibles that breaches I told them I had observed while grading them never happened. They actually believed it; but, I video-recorded their procedures and ol' one eye don't lie.

The key is to not get discouraged and continue improving. The goal is to bring everyone up to a level of infection control proficiency that makes it worthwhile for them all to use medical masks. It looks like the pandemic is going to give everyone ample time to do that and perhaps there will be an ample supply by the time everyone is capable of making good use of it.

Griff 03-28-2020 09:10 PM

:thumb:

Undertoad 03-28-2020 09:21 PM

In this day and age, it is vitally important NOT to listen to government representatives and agencies, world organizations, and national media. The people you must listen to are Internet geeks.

No joke

Here is a great Slate Star Codex blog post that really gives the lowdown on masks. He summarizes the actual science, and will tell you what the media is not smart enough to tell you.

Undertoad 03-28-2020 09:23 PM

And a commenter tells us why cloth masks like bandanas don't really work, and it's immediately understandable:

Quote:

The droplet that would have entered your mouth instead lands on the fabric, where the water evaporates, leaving airborne virus that you inhale.

N95 masks work in part because the holes in the mask/filter media are smaller than some dimensions of the virus. Fabric has holes on the micron scale.

Luce 03-28-2020 11:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sexobon (Post 1049512)
Iran gave us another slap in the face by outdoing our dead guy, who consumed chloroquine phosphate from fish tank cleaner, and having over 300 of their people kill themselves by consuming methanol:

That's some Olympic grade stupidity.

xoxoxoBruce 03-28-2020 11:21 PM

Why should I believe Slate Star Codex over a dozen other pieces I've read?

Undertoad 03-28-2020 11:30 PM

Because he summarizes the actual published science and I vouched for him.

sexobon 03-28-2020 11:35 PM

My masks are reusable and have replaceable filters. It costs a little more; but, to me, I'm worth it. Go figure.

Data sheet.

Quote:

… A particulate filter element exceeding the requirements of NIOSH 42CFR84 P100 and EN 14387 (P3) is incorporated, ensuring effective performance against all dusts, mists, fumes, biological agents (bacteria, virus, fungal spores etc), including radioactive dusts. When combined with an appropriate chemical protective mask, the CBRNCF50 filter canister protects the face, eyes and gastrointestinal tract of the wearer against known chemical and biological agents in aerosol, liquid and vapor form including: ...

monster 03-28-2020 11:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Griff (Post 1049619)
Urn numbers would seem to be a good indicator.

Quote:

Originally Posted by glatt (Post 1049621)
Urns should be fairly reliable for tracking deaths.

I wonder if anyone died of other causes during that time period. I wonder how many urns the funeral homes normally go through.

unless urn suppliers are cashing in and doing family deals..... one's gone, you're all doomed, think ahead....

monster 03-29-2020 12:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sexobon (Post 1049512)
Iran gave us another slap in the face by outdoing our dead guy, who consumed chloroquine phosphate from fish tank cleaner, and having over 300 of their people kill themselves by consuming methanol:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Luce (Post 1049673)
That's some Olympic grade stupidity.

It really is about time Florida got on board with the whole COVID thing..... we must be #1 in all things at all times

Griff 03-29-2020 06:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Undertoad (Post 1049660)
And a commenter tells us why cloth masks like bandanas don't really work, and it's immediately understandable:

Does he talk about whether cloth masks reduce the wearer inadvertently spreading the virus?

I'll answer my own question, yes it does reduce transmission from wearer to others. He agrees.

sexobon 03-29-2020 09:22 AM

Simple cloth masks will also help prevent exposing others to the scourge of civilized peoples, halitosis.

Griff 03-29-2020 09:26 AM

hmmm... maybe I'll brush my teeth again.

Undertoad 03-29-2020 09:36 AM

My theory is that in the US this is hitting the rich people first. Probably due to the fact that only the well-off do trips to China and northern Italy.

In Montgomery County PA where I live they have a map of cases and one township currently has more than double the numbers of cases than any other township.

It's Lower Merion township, where all the rich folks are!

Delaware County has a similar map and it's Radnor and Haverford where all the rich folks are... but then, Upper Darby where there are no rich folks at all, so it broke the streak.

Chester County, it's Tredyffrin and Easttown right down the main line from Montgomery's Lower Merion.

In all counties, the rich people who live out in the sticks seem protected.

tw 03-29-2020 09:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Undertoad (Post 1049698)
My theory is that in the US this is hitting the rich people first.

UT's evidence is distorted by one fact. Towns with highest numbers are also towns with most of the county's population. Numbers by percentages would say something more accurate. But his conclusion may be true. Since many of those towns also contain a large number of commuters to NYC.

Some of the first counties that were ordered shutdown include Wayne and Pike counties in NE Pennsylvania and Leigh county. These counties also have plenty of rich people who commute daily to NYC on Interstates 78 and 80 - completely across NJ.

Counties in New Jersey also hard hit are those adjacent to NYC.

glatt 03-29-2020 09:59 AM

Business travelers tend to be richer than others. Conventions, client meetings, giving talks, trying to woo new clients. All of that is consistent with covid exposure.

Undertoad 03-29-2020 10:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tw (Post 1049700)
UT's evidence is distorted by one fact. Towns with highest numbers are also towns with most of the county's population.

Yes but

Lower Merion population: 59,000. lower-upper class to upper-upper class. Cases: 71

2 miles away, Norristown population: 35,000. lower-lower class to lower-middle class. Cases: 4

Just saying, it's an interesting phenomenon

tw 03-29-2020 10:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Undertoad (Post 1049704)
2 miles away, Norristown population: 35,000. lower-lower class to lower-middle class. Cases: 4

Those people in Norristown do not commute to NYC.

I was rather amazed how many in Lower Merion and other rich towns will even drive to Trenton to take a train into NYC. Blue collar workers in Norristown would not do that kind of commuting.

I was amazed, even in the 1970s, how many people commuted daily from PA across NJ to NYC and Newark. Those are counties that have higher Covid-19 cases. Blue collar workers cannot afford such commutes.

Was rather surprised that Montgomery County (not Philadelphia County) was Pennsylvania's first hot spot. And that was (as your map shows) mostly in the heavily populated eastern towns (Upper Providence being the exception).

Undertoad 03-29-2020 10:51 AM

First known cases in Montgomery County were all from travel, and by their locations ("...Lower Merion couple, and residents of Lower Gwynedd, and Worcester Township") I am wagering they have mad buckage.

https://www.theintell.com/news/20200...ts-to-covid-19

Quote:

Montgomery County Commissioner Chairwoman Dr. Valerie Arkoosh confirmed a cardiologist, who works for CHOP at its King of Prussia outpatient center, tested positive for COVID-19. The patient acquired the virus during a trip outside the U.S. to a country where the virus is active, according to Arkoosh, who did not identify the country.

...

Four other Montgomery County residents who have tested presumed positive have mild symptoms and they are self-isolating at home, Arkoosh said.

They include a Lower Merion couple, and residents of Lower Gwynedd, and Worcester Township who also contracted the virus during either overseas or out-of- state travel to places where the virus is active.

Arkoosh pointed out that so far all the Montgomery County positive cases were travel-acquired, rather than community-acquired allowing health officials to trace contacts to the original source of infection.

Griff 03-29-2020 11:22 AM

I think it's been reported as fact that this is a rich people first virus. Early cases in Mexico were rich folks who vacationed in Colorado. If you fly you have a higher chance of picking this up.

Happy Monkey 03-29-2020 12:18 PM


BigV 03-29-2020 01:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigV
… 3 -- Wear a mask or a bandanna to help you become aware of your hands moving to your face. It does not need to be a medical mask. The mask will not prevent the disease, it helps you stop carrying the disease from your hands to your face.

Quote:

Originally Posted by sexobon
This needs clarification:

Bandanas and non-medical masks won't prevent the disease.

We're literally saying the same thing. Perhaps you didn't watch the video, that's ok. The point of the masks, as I have summarized from the doctor's video, is to help make the wearer aware of the practically inescapable subconscious tendency for people to touch their faces. Ol' one eye has documented this, Ol' bandanna helps highlight this habit in real time.

Your points about aerosols are well taken, but the video talks about the difference in risk between carrying the virus from your hand to your face versus aerosols and the difference is overwhelming. If a bandanna keeps me from carrying the virus from my hand to my face then it's doing the job it's designed for.

sexobon 03-29-2020 02:32 PM

I did watch the video and found some of what the doctor had to say disconcerting. I wanted to ensure that no one would take away from your summarization that the primary point of all masks used by non-healthcare people was to help prevent hand to face transmission. No harm in that.

BigV 03-29-2020 04:30 PM

Ok, what remarks did the doctor make that you find disconcerting?

sexobon 03-29-2020 05:59 PM

I can start with the title saying how easy it is to not get infected. If it were that easy, few would be getting infected. My experience as an instructor-evaluator with ol' one eye says that even with knowledgeable people it's not so easy. This doctor seems to be trying to convince himself (and others) that it is; so, he doesn't have to fret about it...a self prescribed placebo. He said he used to be afraid; but, now he's not. Only dead people have no fear.

He thanks people for donating medical masks; but, says it's not yet enough and downplays their intrinsic value to others while emphasizing the tangent value of non-medical masks. Conflict of interest.

He mentioned distancing by 2-3 feet when others are on the 6 foot distancing sheet of music. He's mixing healthcare worker compromises with recommended practices for non-healthcare people.

The gist of it is, teaching standards can fall by the wayside when subject matter experts go rogue. I believe this to be the case here.

As a senior instructor, I've been a course quality control NCO. I used to formally evaluate instructors by watching their presentations (in person or via classroom cameras and a monitor in my office). The assessment is standardized and I've evaluated presenters from EMTs to orthopedic surgeons. I have a practiced eye and recognize that even the best of intentions can yield questionable results if not presented properly. That's where I'm coming from.
.
.
.

BigV 03-29-2020 06:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigV (Post 1048861)
Field hospital opens on the soccer field just north of Seattle.

Another field hospital opens up at Century Link Field, in downtown Seattle, y'know, where the Seahawks and Sounders FC play.

sexobon 03-29-2020 10:36 PM

It looks like this country's vacation has been extended through the end of April. I expect that Governors and Mayors who have issued Stay At Home orders will follow suit and extend them.

Quote:

Trump says coronavirus 'peak in death rate' likely in 2 weeks, extends social-distancing guidelines through April 30

… President Trump declared that "the peak in death rate" in the coronavirus pandemic "is likely to hit in two weeks," and said the federal government will be extending its social-distancing guidelines through April 30. …

… Saying his earlier hope that the country could reopen by Easter was "just an aspiration,"...

xoxoxoBruce 03-29-2020 11:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Undertoad (Post 1049698)
Delaware County has a similar map and it's Radnor and Haverford where all the rich folks are... but then, Upper Darby where there are no rich folks at all, so it broke the streak.

You have to establish an account to see them, but Upper Darby is where the help lives.

Happy Monkey 03-29-2020 11:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sexobon (Post 1049751)
Quote:

… President Trump declared that "the peak in death rate" in the coronavirus pandemic "is likely to hit in two weeks," and said the federal government will be extending its social-distancing guidelines through April 30. …

… Saying his earlier hope that the country could reopen by Easter was "just an aspiration,"...

I love those two quotes together...

BigV 03-29-2020 11:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigV (Post 1049733)
Another field hospital opens up at Century Link Field, in downtown Seattle, y'know, where the Seahawks and Sounders FC play.

And Central Park.

robertca 03-30-2020 01:19 PM

Coronavirus Origin Theories
https://creazilla-store.fra1.digital...tor-medium.png
Source: (link on first post removed)

BigV 03-30-2020 01:29 PM

Hello robertca, welcome to the cellar.

Gravdigr 03-30-2020 02:07 PM

1 Attachment(s)
Tripped across this, surfing:

Attachment 70143


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 10:58 PM.

Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.8.1
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.