Some things are not what it seem...

According State of Working America: the US economy is at best on crossroads.

"One path leads to a broad-based, balanced recovery, where tight labor markets ensure widely shared real wage and income growth; where the benefits of the faster productivity regime that began in the mid-1990s flow freely to all income classes; where inequality is held at bay and poverty rates are driven down by a growing economy that provides quality jobs to even the least-advantaged worker.

The other path leads to an economy more like that of the 1980s, although with faster productivity growth. Throughout those years—which were characterized by large and growing budget deficits, high average unemployment, sharply growing inequality, and declining real wages and incomes for many in the bottom half—the living standards of far too many working families were stagnant at best."

Actually, we live extremely frugal lives. (I bring PB&J sandwiches to work for lunch to save money.) Trips are our only "extra" expense. That's why I used them as an example.

It's always simple to find measures that make a good economy look bad and a bad economy look good.

In 2004 it was job creation. You might remember how the Times and every single other media outlet were mad because although the economy looked like it was turning around and getting stronger, the "Bush job deficit" was a signal that things were secretly bad.

But job creation was a lagging indicator. Now that 3 million jobs have been created, you don't hear much about it. Now you hear about inequality -- the new signal that things are secretly bad.

Inequality will turn out to be another lagging indicator, as this quarter wages increased really fast. In fact they rose so fast in the past six months, the AP had to use them as a signal that things are secretly bad. Wages are an expense, and, oh no, employers might raise prices to pay for labor costs and that would be inflation! This quarter's economic news:

Return to late 1960s and early 1970s. We were also leaching money everywhere in an economy that was not productive. Massive Vietnam war spending (something like $1million per day) was hidden in special appropriation bills, etc so that it was not part of the budget. US debt was climbing. US equities were being sold for cash. But plenty of jobs. GDP was strong and growing. Yes. That happens when an economy is spending massively on war. Economic spread sheets then look good.

Debts come due many years later. Massive Vietnam spending in mid and late 1960s, and in early 1970s created the brutal economic downturn all through the 1970s. Stagflation. Eventually interest rated climbed approaching 20%. Suddenly no jobs. We had to pay those debts ten years later.

Currently Fed Governors are asking if recession has already started. They are very concerned about significantly rising inflation already at 2.7%. And have you been the grocery store this summer? Notice the higher prices for fruits and vegatables when those prices traditionally fall in the winter? When recessions begin, everything looks good - as just before a 1920 stock market crash.

In the later 1960s, economy was booming but the stock market was flat. Same was a problem in years before the great depression. Today the economy is booming -and stock market has no growth for over five years. Classic of an economy leaching money everywhere. In last few years, American incomes have been decreasing except among the top 10%. When did this occur previously? Just before the 1920s stock market crash.

From the BBC - is this a healthy economy or one simply burning itself out on war:

More examples of an economy that is growing? Whose future is robust? From the NY Times of 7 Sept 2006: As American incomes fall for so many, among some of the first to suffer would be those who don't appear in those economic statistic until so many years later. Short term economics statistics suggest that this is the best it gets? That is not what the long term indicators suggest complete with a Federal Reserve that is even discussing the worse of economic conditions - stagflation.

Right. When the economy slows, the last to lose income are the wealthy, when the economy rebounds, the first to regain income are the wealthy.

And then we learn from history. When America was in a war based on lies and when the war was not being won, the military readiness was both poor - and not acknowledged. When the war is not being won, when the military does not even have a strategic objective (and no exit strategy), and when top government officials lie about this, then the military has severe problems in both manpower and equipment.

That just well proven by history. And then we move forward to see what America's first line units are doing. From the NY Times of 25 Sept 2006 is what Vietnam also proved: Let's see. Last time the administration and right wing extremists lied - denied the war was unwinnable and denied the military was stretched so thin .... Deja Vue Vietnam.

Military equipment so worn, so few, and ... well back in Vietnam, the nation's first line combat units when not actively deployed also had same severe shortages of troops and working equipment. What then happened? The Draft.

Why do I keep posting in direct contradiction to those who somehow always know only using a political agenda?

I was in a machine shop that was resurfacing some of the largest drum brakes I have ever seen. What were they from? Studebaker trucks. A local Army transport unit was reconditioning their Studebaker trucks for deployment to Iraq. The US military is reaching that far down into equipment to maintain the war in Iraq. UT says otherwise. But the engineer has this damn blasted tendency to look at technical facts and details - and see what he also saw in 1969 - Deja Vue Vietnam.

I have no political agenda. I am a centrist which means reality is more important. 2nd Brigade does not even have equipment to train. The 3rd ID is one this nations fast reaction forces. And yet they don't even have half their men. UT tells us that America was never stronger - in direct contradiction to facts from the NY Times AND from lessons in history - Vietnam.

Am I blunt and rude? Yes, I am that honest about reality – especially when extremist political agendas would so harm America. Military stretched so thin as to even send Studebaker trucks to Iraq. Next step - the draft.