And waterproof porn. :mg:

Try this link, let me know if it works.....
http://www.weathertap.com/satellite/SATATLIR4ANI.html

There is also a storm right off the coast of florida...forecasters say it's unlikely, but it MAY become a depression/storm once it leaves the west coast of florida and then turn north....there is also another storm in the gulf of mexico that appears from animated images from weathertap.com to be coalescing (sp) a little too much for my liking.

Possibility of two more storms slamming the gulf coast, in the midst of chaos. Feels like Dennis/Floyd.

Been watching the current tropical storms for weeks. Currently we are up to Nate. In the attached picture, Nate sits between Puerto Rico and Nova Scotia. The larger hurricane is maybe 500 miles to the NE. Notice I have also included other storms in the lower right corner. Is this a hurricane?

Katrina was a nothing the entire time it crossed the Atlantic. It only formed when it hit the Gulf Stream off of FL, made a left turn, and got into the Gulf of Mexico.

This is the problem. Surface temperatures in the Gulf have been at record levels - consistent with global warming - 85 plus degrees F. And since the temperatures are slowly getting warmer deeper every year, then hurricanes that get into the Gulf have been getting quite strong. This is not enough to prove global warming is causing more severe hurricanes. But it is why research is ongoing to better understand the process.

Andrew was a small storm that suddenly turned into a monster just as it hit the Gulf Stream. It is believed that Andrew yanked up a large warm pocket of water that suddenly charged it into a category 5 storm. It is also suspected that Katrina got same in the Gulf. Unfortuntely, last I read, we don't have data on such temperatures. Even the data buoys only monitor surface temperatures. There is much research to do in order to explain why Katrina, et al are occuring.

Whoops! While I was not looking, that little storm off the FL coast (located where Katrina got her upbringing) has suddently turned into the 16th Tropical Depression of the season. Three of them are out there in the Atlantic. The remaining names are Ophelia, Philippe, Rita, Stan, Tammy, Vince, and Wilma. It is possible we use them all.

I was just about to post that, Tee...the storm off the eastern coast of Florida is now TD16, and will be Ophelia if she strengthens that much.

http://www.osei.noaa.gov/OSEIiod.html (NOAA IOD)

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2005/s2484.htm (NOAA Hurricane Outlook)

The 4th and 5th pictures down illustrate why we're having more hurricanes (warmer than average surface temps and lower than average wind shear = more hurricanes. But they can't tell us WHY the temps are warmer or WHY the wind shear is lower.

Nevermind that pesky Kyoto treaty.....

The irony of the fourth and fifth pictures in that URL - Katrina neither formed nor passed through that black box called the "hurricane development region". What has made hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico so severe is abnormal warning throughout in the northern Gulf. The URL (dated 2 Aug 2005) does not even note that area as having unusually high water temperatures.

Actually, yes it does, the fourth picture is http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories...08-02-2005.jpg, and that is the slide for high surface water temps.

??? Unless I misunderstood your post, Tee?

Draw a horizontal line between the southern tips of FL and TX. These past few years, the Gulf of Mexico above that line (along the US Gulf coast) were reported unusually warmer and warmer earlier in the season. At least that is what I was getting from summaries. This fourth picture does not suggest that. I don't know if this fourth picture is only for short term temperatures or for seasonal temperatures. But Katrina got most of its energy from the region above that horizontal line; an area that the fourth picture says is not above normal.

I cannot provide details since some usual sources such as the US Navy Surface Temperature maps long longer are available. Ironically many sources apparently were served out of New Orleans.

Shearing and other effects (some of which are somehow related to El Nino) can make or break hurricanes. These effects tend to cycle. But one effect that is not cycling - is only getting warming - is ocean temperature. That would mean more severe hurricanes that tend to cycle with wind shear and El Nino as they get worse over the decades. Currently the relationship between global warming (ocean warming) and more severe hurricanes is only apparent; has not been definitely proven.

But again, the irony is that Katrina got its energy in locations not listed as warmer (red) on that chart. Katrina never exited in the black box described as "the hurrican development region". OK, maybe Katrina was not really the big one (gasp). Maybe we are still waiting for the really big one from that "hurricane development region" and those red (warmer) regions.

I found this animated surface temperature map. Notice the suddenly high water temperatures that preceded Katrina's visit to those areas.
Weekly Sea Surface Temperatures
The dark red areas are water that is above 30 degree C. To Americans, that is water above 86 degrees F; water that was reported elsewhere to be as much as 90 degrees F.

At one point, the water off east coast FL gets that warm. This is where Katrina suddenly became a hurricane. Suddenly because I was watching that trivial storm long before - and it remained a nothing until it got to the east FL coast.

Based only upon those maps, then one could speculate that Katrina took a lot of heat out of the Gulf.

And now we have Tropical Storm PHILIPPE located in the Atlantic due east of the windward antillies and Carribean Sea. But why stop there? Sitting for a long time NE of Puerto Rico over a hot spot was what we now call Tropical Depression 18. Having moved westward towards the Bahamas, it is targeting the center of the Gulf of Mexico. This could be Rita. Wait. Rita would be 17th. Only one Tropical Depression did not get strong enough to be named.

Of course the Pacific had it worse last year. If I remember, they had either 24 or 26 powerful storms. But the trend is on. Many hurricanes and cyclones in both oceans.

plthijinx: very true. we'll just have to see what happenes. my only hope is that nothing comes my way, or if it does, it goes southward between corpus and b-ville like before....

It's now called Tropical Storm Rita, headed for warmer water between Cuba and FL. In about 5 days, somewhere in the Gulf of Mexico. Chasing Rita is Phillipe. Oh Stan, where art thou.

Just so long as it makes landfall before I get there ...

hmpf. looks like i'll be moving airplanes this weekend instead of dove hunting like originally planned.

The 5 day outlook:

<img src="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL1805W5_sm2+gif/145605W_sm.gif">