Only if he refuses to lose gracefully. If he doesn't win and he loudly decries the election as rigged/illegitimate (which I think it's safe to assume he will, whether or not he actually believes in his heart that it is,) then yes, there will be small, but definitely armed, protests. If he wins, there will be massive, possibly armed protests.

The only way the election settles things down, rather than escalates them, is if Trump loses, then says, "Good, because I hated this job and would rather go back to making bajillions of dollars. You idiots get what you deserve." It would save face, and calm his more ardent followers rather than encouraging them to take to the streets. But he's not going to do that.

so to sum up your theory is that if Trump loses poorly or wins he will get the banana republic he wants

Griff, you have not grasped which part of that post was the thought experiment.

Indeed, Fobble? Will you be there, under arms?

Being in the Oval Office without being Hillary Clinton is still not an actionable offense -- it's really quite a decent thing, forestalling the Mistress of Corruption, who it seems refuses to take the ethical road regardless of situation. Money, shilled up via their Foundation from influence peddlers, is those two's God.

Always remember that with Pennywise the President, there are no principled beliefs, no considered positions, no truth that survives a day and no lie that can't be told.
We need to be prepared for a massive infantile tantrum from the most powerful man in the world.

so to sum up our theory is he's continuously all of that level of ridiculousness, while at the same time capable of gimping the operation of the US Postal Service without people knowing

capable of doing the thing everybody knows about without anybody knowing?

as in, like, gradually training people to not believe their own eyes, just like has happened in every country that we assumed to be a stable democracy that suddenly, precipitously toppled into far-right fascism, as is, you know, the current trend in global politics? in the real world of things that are actually happening and should definitely be worried about?

I don't claim to know what Trump personally wants--it seems to change moment to moment anyway. I do know that Putin, for one, wants us unstable and at each other's throats, and he's very much gotten it, regardless of how much influence he may or may not have had in that outcome. You yourself noted awhile back that civil war is very much a possibility in the current political climate, and I think we've come closer to it in the last four years, not farther. I think Trump is a perfect example of the "take everything personally," "view my opponents as inherently evil," tribal-behavior-stoking attitude that you've decried in the past. I'm not saying Trump is a mastermind, I'm just telling you what I think will happen in each election scenario. Whether any of those scenarios ultimately ushers in a banana republic remains to be seen, but it's a fact that Trump has floated the idea of delaying the election, and threatened not to leave office if he loses. Both are banana republic behaviors, not functioning democracy behaviors.

so to sum up our theory is that fascism will be carefully implemented by a boorish clown with little charisma who is hated by 90% of the press, 90% of the intellectual class, and 90% of urban elites who control 95% of the cities and there is not a DAMN thing anyone can do about it

I noticed the division and started considering the terrible possible consequences in 2013 when he was still just a boorish TV personality

Please share your direct evidence of this

oh, of course he didn't say that (unless he did), and if he did, he was just joking, or sort of suggested something that may or may not be taken that way. all around perfectly normal and not worrisome behavior. it's "all good"™

Good post though Clod, I think what will probably happen is not outright civil war but a division of the country with separate laws and structures. At first, states will vote to secede so Griff should choose the rural section of a solidly blue state. Over time, counties of those states will also divide, so NY is right out and it will have to be VT.

to sum up that is my theory

unless you are getting death threats from Trump supporters and have had to beef up your firearms preparedness for a very real, bloody civil war that is literally being threatened to you personally, at your doxxed home address, LIKE I AM, then I'm not super invested in your theories about who can or cannot stage a fascist takeover. the reality-defying supporters of the god-king-cult leader have been spooked into collecting huge amounts of guns and ammunition for decades now. when it hits the fan, who the ƒuck cares what intellectuals and urban elites think? THEY WILL JUST SHOOT THEM*

*me

It's embedded in a news report, but the audio of Trump starts at 1:02:



And yeah, it's presented as "a joke," because that's how he always floats ideas, so he can backtrack if it's received badly. But it's polarizing, and he knows it. A lot of people think trolling is harmless fun, but I think it's bad for everyone.

I can certainly see it happening that way. My guess is Texas would be one of the first.

I live in the rural section of a solidly blue state and it is the absolutely most life-threateningly dangerous place to be right now. The anger against the democratic leadership is palpable, and overflowing in the threat of violence spilling into our streets and homes.