The Cellar - Afghanistan

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- - Afghanistan (http://cellar.org/showthread.php?t=19231)

I like this point of view. May provide a realistic exit strategy.

Quote:

The American debate on Afghanistan seems to be framed by two diametrically opposed definitions of success. One says that we have effectively won the war already—that the death of Osama bin Laden and the increase in targeted drone attacks have achieved the goal of preventing transnational terrorists from once again using sanctuaries in Afghanistan to attack the United States. The other view holds that success is impossible—that the goal of a stable Afghan government in control of its own territory is beyond our reach.

Enlarge Image

Getty images
Look to Colombia, where the U.S. helped the government in Bogota achieve success short of complete victory.

Both views lead to the same result: a premature abandonment of Afghanistan that could return it to the control of the Taliban and allow al Qaeda and other extremists to regain sanctuaries. Even targeted drone strikes would be much less effective without the human intelligence needed to support them.

But there is an alternative: the"Colombia standard" of success. It's probably unrealistic to think that the Afghan government can completely control Afghan territory by 2014 or even some later date. But, like the Colombian government, it could achieve success short of complete victory.

http://online.wsj.com/article_email/...sj_share_email

I don't know how realistic it is and it really looks like a permanent relationship. Hasn't FARC really just turned into a narco operation more concerned with production and transport rather than holding any ground permanently? Not the same thing as religious extremists who'd like to make the world over. I may be overly skeptical because of destruction Wolfowitz has done to our country/planet.

Good questions. I don't know the answer. Other than I want to see it end eventually. I don't have a lot of faith in the people of Afghanistan to form any kind of government. They just don't have the infrastructure to run a country of that scope, size, and diversity in any unified way(IMHO). What ever happens I see it returning to the same thing that existed before we got there and without the support of Pakistan to keep drones or other forces on their border it will all go back to the post stone age. Just as before.

Just noting pretty much complete agreement. I'd expand that the lack of "infrastructure to run a country" includes regular things like roads and communications, but also social infrastructure like established systems of government, a tradition of an honest civil service, enough people with the right abilities in the right positions and crucially, a widespread social habit of having and obeying a central government.

These things are not impossible, but these are generation-type timescales. I doubt anyone wants to hang around for that long.

So, um, yeah, obviously we should mumblemumblemumblemumblemumble.

Pakistan Was Consulted Before Fatal Hit, U.S. Says
Deadly Border Strike Came After Forces Were Told Area Was Clear of Pakistani Troops, Officials Say

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...googlenews_wsj

Quote:

U.S. Says

:eek: . . . :rolleyes:

So you choose to believe a country like Pakistan over the US?

:eek:.....:D

Makes sense for your recent positions....

George W Bush was handed a plum years ago when the Iranians
demanded that the Americans must leave Iran in 1911.
Now Obama gets one too.... one less excuse to stay in Afghanistan

This one is different tho, Karzai makes a boo-boo, but plants it on Obama.
It's called "politics is all local"

NY Times
MATTHEW ROSENBERG
Published: January 8, 2012

Karzai’s Ultimatum Complicates U.S. Exit Strategy

Quote:

KABUL, Afghanistan — President Hamid Karzai’s denunciation
last week of abuses at the main American prison in Afghanistan
— and his abrupt demand that Americans cede control of the site within a month — surprised many here.
The prison, at Bagram Air Base, is one of the few in the country where
Afghan and Western rights advocates say that conditions are relatively humane.

American officials, caught off guard by the president’s order,
scrambled to figure out the source of the allegations.
Now they have at least part of an answer: the Afghan commission
that documented the abuses appears to have focused mainly
on the side of the prison run by Afghan authorities, not the American-run part,
according to interviews with American and Afghan officials.

Mr. Karzai was, in essence, demanding that the Americans cede control of a prison
to Afghan authorities to stop abuses being committed by Afghan authorities.
But the American snickering subsided quickly as it became apparent that the Afghans
were not backing off their demand, the officials said, and instead appeared intent
on turning it into a test of their national sovereignty.

The matter is exposing the deep vein of mutual mistrust and suspicion
that runs beneath the American and Afghan talk of partnership, and
officials characterize the prison dispute as a critical complication for the United States’
intent to withdraw from the Afghan war on its own terms.<snip>

Karzai must understand that if the foreign (well, US) forces walk away now, he'll be up agaisnt the wall inside a month or two. Yet if he doesn't act tough and independent, he won't last long either way.

I agree. This place will go back to it's feudal ways in short order. The best they can hope for is some sense of normalcy in the larger cities. But for the rest of the place I have little hope.

Quote:

The U.S. military left Nangalam base last February, handing over to Afghan forces. But within weeks, things went badly wrong.

Enemy forces returned to roam freely through the valley. The Afghan commander deserted. Hundreds of his soldiers followed.

"I believe there was some of (feeling of abandonment) amongst the (Afghan) soldiers. It's probably what led to some of their leadership leaving," Guillen said.

The Afghan forces that remained ransacked their own base.

All the electric wires have been pulled out. Anything of any value was taken. You can see the wiring hanging out of the light.

Just about everything else that could be moved was sold for cash.

Without American support, the Afghan army refused to resupply the base. The soldiers were living in filth.

For the U.S. military, it was an embarrassing example of what might happen when security is handed over to Afghan forces across the country, and so four months after leaving, a small group of U.S. troops was sent back in.

Today, American contractors are back on the base repairing the damage, with U.S. taxpayers footing the bill, again.

from here
Bold mine - Grrrrrrrrr

I would like to make one thing clear, this is not an embarrassing example of what might happen when security is handed over to the afghans. It is just what will happen. We need to get over it and move on, or just plan on staying.

Quote:

Originally Posted by regular.joe (Post 787324)

:thumb: my take exactly....

I'm hoping we embedded enough tactical nukes for remote detonation.

Quote:

Originally Posted by sexobon (Post 787356)

I'm hoping we embedded enough tactical nukes for remote detonation.

As long as they are in Pakistan I would agree whole heartedly.