The lockdowns are SOP and should've been incorporated from the beginning.

It's like saying that if another country attacks your country, half the population will be killed (without factoring in a military response).

I regard such projections as I regard the chloroquine treatment - as anecdotal.

Government's public endorsement is contraindicated when it can cause more harm than good. Look at panic stockpiling in the rear leaving shortages on the front lines.

Yeah, I feel like we've already reached the part of the game where the seriousness of the thing is downplayed because some places were pretty successful implementing the social-distancing plan. Because of late recognition, NYC continues to be behind the curve, but parts of the US would appear to have a little wiggle room. A deeply religious man, Donald J Trump would like to open the country up for business on Easter. The pagans in NYC won't understand how important that is.

UTs premise is that the model was defective because an infected person would only infect 2.4 others.

The model did not say 2.4 people WILL be infected - as UT misrepresents. The model said IF the number was 2.4, then these very bad things are expected.

That number was only one input to the model - not a conclusion from the model as UT would have us believe. And as DanaC correctly noted. The model said if infections were only 2.4, then these bad things will happen. Apparently the infection rate is about 3. So things may be even worse.

The model, as reported, said nothing about death rates. Another data input projected that 4.4% of those infected will require hospitalization. Not death. Hospitalization. UT claims the model was defective because death rates in UK may only be 20,000. Hospitalization numbers and death numbers obviously are different.

If 60% must recover from this virus before it subsides, then we can expect maybe 7+ million Americans will eventually require hospitalization. Since nothing was done for supplies, then more nurses and doctors will die. How many? Depends on whether that 7 million arrive immediately. Or require hospitalization between now and November.

Longer means less nurses and doctors are infected. And less people die due to no ventilators.

Another input to the model notes about 8 ICU beds per 100,000 people exist. A number that would never be that low had the nation been led by someone who wanted to avert disaster.

Isolation and lockdown will do nothing to end this pandemic. Those only slow the spread so that medical people have time to obtain 'withheld and now limited' equipment. So that less nurses and doctors die.

Isolation and lockdown made more necessary because 85% of this problem is directly traceable to top management. A White House intentionally subverted any response for two months. As a result, lockdowns may be necessary in some places well into or after May.

Of course, he says it will all be over before Easter. He lies. He would have us do what is clearly wrong and dangerous. We all know who he is.

Lessons from Singapore, Hong Kong, and S Korea demonstrated a pandemic is less problematic when prevention was implemented sooner. Key is testing. No test kits were made or obtained in the US because the White House subverted necessary actions.

Some 3500 people were potential victims on the Grand Princess (outside San Francisco). Many days later, they could only find 45 test kits for that ship. What most prevents widespread infection are test kits and laboratories with equipment to process those kits.

Only place that could do testing in American was the CDC in Atlanta. Two months after the threat was obvious, expected, known, and spreading.

Also key are test kits that can identify an infected person in minutes. That was clearly defined as necessary in the NSC report (a Pandemic Playbook) that was disposed, mocked, and rescinded in 2018. We know by who.

On Tuesday, the president again lied on his propaganda network - Fox. Saying that his administration could not have foreseen the coronavirus pandemic. Even though the intelligence community bluntly told him - in no uncertain terms - it was coming on Jan 12.

Things that could have been done when this pandemic was obvious in January were poo-pooed. He even admits he will intentionally lie to make himself look better. And to make others feel better. 85% of all problems are directly traceable to a man that UT still praises.

Today, NYC has no more available ventilators. 16,000 are in military storage that Trump said would be distributed last week. They still have not shipped. 85% of all problems are directly traceable to who? Trump then said so many ventilators were not necessary. Apparently his staff scolded him. He denied his lie but hours later.

To further promote himself, Trump is moving his hundreds man entourage to Norfolk to sent off a hospital ship Comfort. Why expose hundreds more to infections? Well that ship could not move. Since facts were ignored on 12 Jan, then the ship was under reconstruction and unavailable. As of this afternoon, it still has not moved while ceremonies continue.

Standard SOP is a boss implementing what informed employees say. And not the boss telling the informed that they are wrong and evil. He is also not smarter than the Generals. He has a 30 second attention span. Another reason why more doctors and nurses may die.

Nope. Nobody fucking knows, mate. Incredibly, he won't reveal his model.

He can just publish his code, and immediately end that argument, but he won't.

He provides facts that a scumbag president wants to deny. So you attack him rather than a lying idiot with a 30 second attention span? That scumbag even admits he lies to make himself look better. A scumbag loved by people routinely brainwashed by Fox News propaganda. That is not even an opinion. Those are facts.

Facts say a responsible person does not automatically attack all science. The least informed even denied global warming - because Fox News ordered them to. Responsible people do know. The fucking problem is that scumbag.

Covid-19 is just another example of a scumbag who only makes things worse.

He's just an Epidemiologist. If he wants people to take him seriously, he'll have to go back to school to become a Pandemiologist. :p:

Why should I attack you?

:lol:

You do that in an underhanded manner; constantly. You have long history of touted Fox News lies and denying well proven facts. You denied global warming. Denied Fukushima plants were in (obvious) meltdown. Denied the "Saddam clearly did not have WMDs" reality even after George Jr confirmed it publicly. Denied a Katrina disaster in New Orleans because Fox News even denied people were without food and water for days in the Superdome and Convention center (even after their own reporters told the truth). Because you believe Fox News. And even disparage honest news sources.

An honest person is openly critical of a scumbag president. Instead, you recite Fox News lies that exist only because Fox News is a Trump propaganda machine. Its purpose is to lie when necessary.

You put up the three network anchormen as three monkeys - deaf, dumb and blind. When they were telling the truth and Fox News was lying. Had you ignored Fox News - the fake news - and listened to responsible sources, then you knew the truth about global warming. Know that Trump said there were only five Covid-19 cases and he expected that number to drop to 1 next week. Said we should all fill the churches on Easter. And said old people should ignore their health to save the economy. He even said those Governors, Mayors, and medical professionals were wrong. He would ignore their pleas for help if they did not say nice things about him. They don't need all those ventilators - according to Trump. Did Fox News contradict him? Of course not.

Trump even criticized a federally-funded program, for people exposed to contaminated Flint water, $25 to enroll in support services and programs. He tweeted “this is a total disgrace." Because that is what Fox News said.

That is your responsible news source? No wonder we have been so adversarial since you promoted what was the massacre of 5000 American servicemen for no purpose. And still do not apologize for endorsing that mistake - that continues today.

Having delayed the hospital ship Comfort for another photo-Op, well it finally and just now is leaving Norfolk harbor. And should finally arrive in NYC on Monday - in two days. Two days to travel from Chesapeake Bay to NY harbor.

A president that you still approve of is that bad for every patriotic American.

Worst case of COVFEFE-19 I ever saw.

How sad it must be to spend three decades chronicling this and still get it wrong. I mean I would like to answer your shit in kind, but that would be elder abuse.

Critical thinking is the very thing that elected DJT in the first place; the electorate undertook critical thinking of the political Establishment and concluded that we were come to our unsatisfactory pass *because* of the professional political class -- a class that continues to take a thrashing as the electorate rebels at the prospect of them continuing to fill the seats of power.

Trump has, critical thinkingwise, shown up the value of the political establishment -- it's not high, as la Pelosi's idea of appropriate political conduct and escaping condemnation from her own, this last week will show -- only partly owing to his being an outsider therefrom. This goes back a long ways into a real estate career -- politicians being in the main a line-item expense, and little more.

(Talk radio properly raised hell with Pelosi over that "no crisis unexploited" stunt. Really -- 1400 pages of riders, considerably greater in bulk than the original appropriations bill??)

He's made that public, and they can't fucking stand it -- and that couldn't happen to a nicer and more deserving demographic. Their vocal reluctance to bend over and take one for the free republic is blatant, and their shame. No wonder I quit voting for Donkeys so many years ago. That's the easiest way to perform critical thinking -- and it saves you from voting an antidemcratic socialist (socialism isn't democratic; never be fooled by disguise -- or you can't be a critical thinker) even inadvertently into the bargain. You've still got a couple of decent party choices -- the Republicans do not harbor socialists in their club, and the Libertarians are positively the antisocialists.

Shoud tw be taken out of circulation by a moderate attack of Wuhan Coronavirus -- and recover -- it is to be hoped he will thereupon do the just as moderately heroic thing with a plasma and antibodies donation, helping to effect cures for the worse afflicted.

And when enough anecdotes of successful chloroquine and hexachloroquine treatment and cure accumulate, offlabel use or no, they pile up into something that looks a lot like data. Not completely, not rigorously -- but close enough to be useful.

A message from Chatham, MA.

From an interview of a Park Ave (NYC) resident. He believed he is the only person remaining in his building. And because he believes he is the only one without a vacation home.

The long arm of medical red tape is what keeps us safe 99% of the time. In the last few weeks though? Not so much --

Company: "Our technology can sterilize 160,000 masks a day -- and we can send it to trouble spots where it's needed!"

FDA: "You're authorized for 10,000. And only in Ohio. And that's how it shall stay."

https://www.nbc4i.com/community/heal...nly-10k-a-day/

As reported in Mississippi, due to a shortage of any protective equipment, other surgeries have been canceled. For example, one women with breast cancer and slated for surgery, had it canceled due to this nationwide shortage of protective medical equipment (ie masks, gowns, etc).

So would she be cited as a Covid-19 victim? Or a victim of mismanagement at the highest levels?

As reported in Mississippi, due to a shortage of any protective equipment, other surgeries have been canceled. For example, one women with breast cancer and slated for surgery, had it canceled due to this nationwide shortage of protective medical equipment (ie masks, gowns, etc).

So would she be cited as a Covid-19 victim? Or a victim of mismanagement at the highest levels?

Why did the medical professionals in this Miss. facility allow such a shortage to occur?

Company: "Our technology can sterilize 160,000 masks a day -- and we can send it to trouble spots where it's needed!"

FDA: "You're authorized for 10,000. And only in Ohio. And that's how it shall stay."

Might be time to play anarchist, give the FDA the finger, and reach out to the troubled areas directly.

:rolleyes:

I'm not particularly bright: mebbe you wanna spell out the connection.

The shortage is not from normal hospital usage. It is 100% because of the huge influx of COVID-19 cases worldwide. Cases that you, among others, didn't believe would happen. Two weeks ago you scoffed at the numbers; now you imply that the hospital was negligent in not procuring a huge surplus in anticipation of those numbers.

Incidentally, the federal government does have a stockpile of masks, etc. in case of a pandemic. The states have to formally request them, and they have been. So far, Trump is delivering on those requests entirely based on which states have governors that praise him. Florida has received 100% of the gear they've requested. Blue states have gotten between 0%-15% of what they've asked for.

Well, Florida does have all of those old, highly vulnerable, retirees and let's not forget all those obnoxious vectors on spring break!

The shortage is not from normal hospital usage. It is 100% because of the huge influx of COVID-19 cases worldwide.

Poopycock. This is a hospital. It's the job of the professionals at that facility to stock their shelves based on the current and anticipated needs of their community.

The goings on in Italy or China or New York have what bearing on this hospital?

None.

Either they were short of equipment before Fu Manflu (which is negligent on their part) or they gifted equipment and shorted themselves (which is dumb).


Cases that you, among others, didn't believe would happen. Two weeks ago you scoffed at the numbers

I still scoff. what's the global death total for the China Syndrome? What's the Global death total for the current mediocre Flu?

Stickin' with 'Murica: what's the death totals? Where are the bulk of infections & deaths happenin'?

We're in the midst of a severe thunderstorm but the Weather Channel sez it's a hurricane.

Sure, NY & NO, for example, have it bad, but most of 'Murica is fine and gettin' a bit miffed at havin' the brakes stomped on their personal economies cuz of what isn't happenin' to them.

It's wool, pulled over eyes.


now you imply that the hospital was negligent in not procuring a huge surplus in anticipation of those numbers.

Not at all. I'm sayin', flat-out, a hospital in a state with less than a thousand cases of Commie-virus ought not be short, especially when that state tends to, historically, have a higher incidence of Flu infection than other states.


Incidentally, the federal government does have a stockpile of masks, etc. in case of a pandemic. The states have to formally request them, and they have been. So far, Trump is delivering on those requests entirely based on which states have governors that praise him. Florida has received 100% of the gear they've requested. Blue states have gotten between 0%-15% of what they've asked for.

Best kiss Orange Man's ass then...for the good of the people.

I doubt he even has that ability

I'm not saying no, I'm just skeptical. Political and journalistic games are afoot

https://twitter.com/Neoavatara/statu...33464427606018

Here in the US, mid-April son.

They are wagerin' it will be 81,000 dead, let's see how it goes

https://covid19.healthdata.org/

It's definitely happening, but there are indeed competing answers as to why Florida got everything it asked for (e.g. higher population than some states--though certainly not New York--lower request numbers, looming hurricanes.) Department of Health & Human Services makes the direct decisions as to who gets what.

four (mebbe five) predictions
 

*when the Caronapocalypse is done: infections & deaths will be comparable with any old seasonal, garden-variety Flu

*the Caronapocalypse will be done end of April, early part of May

*Caronapocalypse talk will go on and on and on ('till my employee is reelected after which virus-speak will abruptly end in favor of some new crisis)

*a whole whack of folks are gonna ask their various local, regional, state, and federal employees a lotta hard questions (mostly about why the whole of 'Murica had to go on hold for sumthin' that wasn't the apocalypse), the answers won't satisfy, so...

*...mebbe a good chunk of them employees will have to get real jobs

It is nice that they are estimating 81,000 now, because I initially set our over-under at 80,000 :lol: and I am now pretending I was very very smart at doing this when I set it :lol:, ...it was just a wild-ass guess based on the flu numbers.

In truth, early inches make it go up or down by powers of ten. A butterfly sneezes...! Nobody's early guess could have been very good. It was and is a dice roll.

Mebbe (but probably not): we'll see.

Same old story...

They had finished the design and sent three samples to Washington for evaluation. They performed and were a third of the price of the machines sold by the giant that bought the company for $100 million then asked the government for $1.5 million more, got it and promptly assigned everyone working on it to different projects. Later the giant was bought by Medtronic who says, What ventilators?

What, mentally?


Practically, who can say no that can't be overruled?

Good on Bill Gates btw.

Ability, not authority --

Partly because, in general, how things get done in the world is not CEOs micromanaging the process. The scale is too large for that. It won't work.

This is not an exact analogy, but if I'm a CEO and I walk down to shipping and I say, "Give me the bills of lading and list of trucks and I'll tell them where to go," I will actually fuck up the logistics department for weeks; and some of those trucks won't arrive, or won't be handled correctly for a while. Because I don't have 20 years of experience in shipping. Like, I just sent the refrigerator trucks north and the shipments sent south will spoil.

He doesn't have to micromanage the truck routing, he can just tell the managers "F New York".

Allllrighty. Well I don't mean to get in the way of your pet theory, knock yourself out.

I didn't put forth the theory, I was just trying to figure out what you thought could stop him.

Yeah, but I answered, and now we are in some sort of quibbling phase where my answer isn't it. Just bring us a link that proves it happened. That will really show I'm wrong.

As if Puerto Rico got the necessary supplies it needed. It only took a good part of a year to provide what was needed the first week. Because Trump is such a good manager.

USNS Comfort is now in NY harbor -- just when needed -- either this proves he is an effective leader or this proves he hates Puerto Rico.

Wait until he finds out how many Puerto Ricans are in NYC :lol:

Actually it proves nothing at all as he had nothing to do with it

More Puerto Ricans are expatriates than there are Puerto Ricans in Puerto Rico.

We all face problems at this time, today I killed two turds with one stone.

Attachment 70156

People can blow their noses in that when they get shitfaced too!

So I had heard something but wasn't sure it was a rumor or what, but it's true-- back in early February, the State Department sent 17.8 tons of medical supplies to China, including masks and respirators. This is back when we only had a dozen cases in the US, and the whole thing was a democratic hoax that the media was hyping to hurt Trump's re-election.

Truth is stranger than fiction.

100% true. Feb. 7.

We fought the virus over there so we didn't have to fight it here, or something

It's how USAID operates. They have now been EnTiReLy shut down after it was learned we asked Thailand for supplies while shipping them the same supplies

asked for the same supplies we were shipping?
"we should elect somebody who is good with business to run the government" lol

Three days later, estimate now rises to 93,765

This is why I hate humans, really.

Russia is sending us stuff.

[BOLD MINE]

The beautiful Russian nurses accompanying the shipment are classified information. We'll never see 'em.

I want Mike Pence to be my hype man.

He's just as impervious to direct questions as Kellyanne Conway, but prettier.

Pretty gay for the VP!

from John Hopkins
 

Infections

COVID-19: Approximately 1,026,974 cases worldwide; 245,573 cases in the U.S. as of Apr. 3, 2020.

Flu: Estimated 1 billion cases worldwide; 9.3 million to 45 million cases in the U.S. per year.

Deaths

COVID-19: Approximately 53,975 deaths reported worldwide; 6,058 deaths in the U.S., as of Apr. 3, 2020.

Flu: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year.

And yet there are tents of overflowing sick people outside several major hospitals, refrigerated trucks in NYC hospital parking lots to hold dead bodies because the morgues are full, and one NYC hospital just reported their first death due to care rationing (i.e., a ventilator could have saved the patient but they were all in use.)

But yeah, man. It's just like the flu.

They didn't prepare. They were lulled into a false sense of security by the myth that an apple a day keeps the doctor away. Didn't work for The Big Apple.

But yeah, man. It's just like the flu.

Goin' by the numbers: Fu Manflu doesn't even measure up to a mediocre flu.


tents of overflowing sick people outside several major hospitals, refrigerated trucks in NYC hospital parking lots to hold dead bodies because the morgues are full, and one NYC hospital just reported their first death due to care rationing (i.e., a ventilator could have saved the patient but they were all in use.)

Sounds to me like a whole whack of elected and appointed employees in NY didn't do, aren't doin', their jobs right.

That's called incompetence: the real public health crisis.

But you can't be specific, right?

Who failed, what action was wrong, can you identify any of "the whole whack" so that others can learn from this mistake?

I don't live in NY, I live in Louisiana, I'll trust the voters of NY to sort the wheat from chaff.

But even from that distance you're clear that a whole whack of public servants aren't doing their jobs right.

Huh.