The Cellar - Impeding changes to our Health Care system

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- - Impeding changes to our Health Care system (http://cellar.org/showthread.php?t=16747)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Redux (Post 647949)

It also look at other mandates and used other modeling based on experiences of those mandates, including the experience in Mass (an estimated 3% are paying the penalty), experience with other mandates (ie car insurance and factoring in that health insurance is more costly than auto insurance) etc.

So 97% bought in? Or is it that only 3 % were not covered by other means like medicaid.

Quote:

Originally Posted by classicman (Post 647955)

So 97% bought in? Or is it that only 3 % were not covered by other means like medicaid.

Approximately 3% of taxpayers were determined by the Commonwealth to have had access to affordable insurance but paid an income tax penalty instead. Approximately 2% were determined not to have had access to affordable insurance, and a small number opted for a religious exemption to the mandate.[37] As of June 30, 2008, the estimated number of uninsured had dropped to 2.6%.[37] Comparing the first half of 2007 to the first half of 2008, spending from the Health Safety Net Fund dropped 38% as more people became insured.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massach...eform#Outcomes

Not extrapolated to the greater population of the US no matter how you statistically screw it. No way, no how...

My last post was poorly written - I took your word for it that the number in MA was 3% -
Is that the number the CBO assumed is would opt-in nationally?

Quote:

Originally Posted by classicman (Post 647964)

My last post was poorly written - I took your word for it that the number in MA was 3% -
Is that the number the CBO assumed is would opt-in nationally?

No....the CBO uses widely accepted econometiric modeling and the MA experience was only one factor in which it would account for the difference in demographics to determine a reasonable expectation of participation.

The other factors are equally important, particularly determining different participation rates based on the different subsidy rates.....higher subsidies --> higher participation.

It is also a fact that a significant number (50% or more) of the uninsured between 19-26 would now be Medicaid eligible based solely on income.

It is also a fact that if you opt out and pay the penalty, you cant suddenly opt in at the time of an accident...and I think it is reasonable to assume that if you are young and newly married and want to start a family, then you would likely opt in rather than pay $8,000 (cost of a pregnancy) to start that family.

I got all that the first time. The question stands. What % did they assume would opt-in? They had to make an assumption in order to do the cost comparisons? How else could the administration make the claim that Obamacare is going to be cost neutral?

tangent/I'm shocked at the MA numbers.

AKA total fucking guess work. Any way you look at it you will be covered under Obamacare, just like all the illegal aliens are today. Well that is of course if they are not covered as they are now. So far the penalties will in no way encourage people to buy insurances.. just as I have been saying for over a year now.

Oh, but no worry, the tax payers will pay for it...

Quote:

Originally Posted by classicman (Post 647967)

If you take the time to read the report and the modeling description, it explains the different scenarios and outcomes.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Redux (Post 647973)

I...the modeling description,.....

Read between the lines people...

THIS is freaking guess work with your tax payer dollars and your childrens future...

Don't trust these scumbags...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Redux (Post 647973)

If you take the time to read the report and the modeling description, it explains the different scenarios and outcomes.

ok I'll have to go back and find it.

Who is going to see all these new patients?

Medical Schools Can't Keep Up
As Ranks of Insured Expand, Nation Faces Shortage of 150,000 Doctors in 15 Years

Quote:

The new federal health-care law has raised the stakes for hospitals and schools already scrambling to train more doctors.

Experts warn there won't be enough doctors to treat the millions of people newly insured under the law. At current graduation and training rates, the nation could face a shortage of as many as 150,000 doctors in the next 15 years, according to the Association of American Medical Colleges.

That shortfall is predicted despite a push by teaching hospitals and medical schools to boost the number of U.S. doctors, which now totals about 954,000.

The greatest demand will be for primary-care physicians. These general practitioners, internists, family physicians and pediatricians will have a larger role under the new law, coordinating care for each patient.

The U.S. has 352,908 primary-care doctors now, and the college association estimates that 45,000 more will be needed by 2020. But the number of medical-school students entering family medicine fell more than a quarter between 2002 and 2007.

A shortage of primary-care and other physicians could mean more-limited access to health care and longer wait times for patients.

Proponents of the new health-care law say it does attempt to address the physician shortage. The law offers sweeteners to encourage more people to enter medical professions, and a 10% Medicare pay boost for primary-care doctors.

Meanwhile, a number of new medical schools have opened around the country recently. As of last October, four new medical schools enrolled a total of about 190 students, and 12 medical schools raised the enrollment of first-year students by a total of 150 slots, according to the AAMC. Some 18,000 students entered U.S. medical schools in the fall of 2009, the AAMC says.

But medical colleges and hospitals warn that these efforts will hit a big bottleneck: There is a shortage of medical resident positions. The residency is the minimum three-year period when medical-school graduates train in hospitals and clinics.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...hatsNewsSecond

Note to self: take a few bio classes, become a physician's assistant, diagnose the easy stuff like kids' ear infections and make six figures.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Undertoad (Post 648272)

Note to self: take a few bio classes, become a physician's assistant, diagnose the easy stuff like kids' ear infections and make six figures.

You absolutely could do that.

And people are wondering where all the jobs are going to be.